Zapatero '08

2008-06-02T15:51:00.006+01:00

Hello whatever readers are left of this blog,

As you'd have noticed I stopped blogging here a while ago. We are going back now to 'politics as usual' after the race in Spain and I don't think that many non-Spanish speaking people would want to follow the topic, neither I find it exciting enough at the moment to do so.

But as I really enjoyed blogging so I set up a new blog over at wordpress.com. The new blog is called Forgesian Thinking. It will focused mainly in UK politics but a bit of everything will be thrown in to make it a bit less dense than Zapatero '08 was. There will be stories on the American race, Spanish politics (of course) and anything I find relevant to share with the world really.

So please click on the link and come around have a look!

Hope to see some of you over there soon.

Rajoy stays

2008-03-12T11:03:00.002Z

Mariano Rajoy, the defeated PP candidate in the March 9 election has pledged himself for a third candidacy to the Presidency in 2012. This will be his second term as leader of the opposition.

Rajoy met yesterday with his party leadership and stated his intention to fight for reelection as leader of PP in the summer conference. Heavyweights like Aguirre and Camps, presumed potential succesors, have announced that they won't challenge the current leader. PP is well known for its hierarchical organisationl discipline, hardly leaders' are challenged in public. If Rajoy wants to stay it will be hard to kick him out, only someone with greater authority within the party could force him out, and that person is Jose Maria Aznar. So far Aznar, of whom Rajoy is his chosen successor in 2004, hasn't spoken after the electoral defeat. I presume many younger and ambitious candidates will be awaiting his judgement on the disarray within the conservative party.

Rajoy's uncertain future

2008-03-11T11:33:00.003Z

International coverage

2008-03-10T19:01:00.002Z

UK:
The Guardian
BBC
The Times
Financial Times

US:
NY Times
Washington Post

France:
Le Monde

The electoral analysis

2008-03-10T18:07:00.002Z

With all votes counted the official results are as follow in number of seats, in brackets the 2004 results:

PSOE: 169 (164)
PP: 153 (148)
CiU: 11 (10)
PNV: 6 (7)
ERC: 3 (8)
IU: 2 (5)
BNG: 2 (2)
CC: 2 (3)
UPyD: 1 (-)
Na-Bai: 1 (1)
EA: - (1)
CHA: - (1)

The trend is one of increased bipartisanship with two clear losers, IU and ERC that lose 3 and 5 seats respectively. UPyD wins one seat in Madrid and enter Congress.

These results show that the electorate is worried about more radical forms of peripheral nationalisms. It also shows that PSOE has lost a small part of its more moderate 'Spanish' vote to PP and UPyD. However, PSOE makes clear inroads into peripheral nationalist areas in the Basque Country and Catalonia. For the first time in 15 years PSOE wins more votes than the Basque nationalists (PNV) in the three Basque provinces.

So a electoral conclusion would be that PSOE has moved towards the left of the spectrum, winning seats from nationalists and left wing parties. PP on the other side make a small inroad into the more moderate Socialist voters worried about immigration and nationalisms. However, PSOE's increase in votes and the more radical parties losses mean that Zapatero can enjoy a comfortable four years governing on his own with specific pacts with moderate nationalists in Congress. Moreover, Zapatero having dealt with the most controversial parts of the reforms he promised, the territorial ones, should enjoy a more popular mandate until 2012 with a focus on the economic and social policies. PP on the other side has also gained seats which probably will mean that some of their policies on immigration and territoriality will stay. However, their ultra-agressive attitude in Congress these past four years will change as it has failed them. The big question is if Rajoy will stay as leader or resign. With yesterday's results both things are possible, Rajoy could stay arguing that his number have gone up, but younger and more charismatic candidates might be planning to move his chair. Too early to say.

Overall, four more years for PSOE which is a great accomplishment after the very tense past four years. However, lessons must be learnt. A more efficient communication policy is needed to better explain Government actions and policies. Moderation will be essential to not forget our core vote. I am aware that plenty of left wing voters feel that IU and other left wing forces deserve a greater share of the seats and could come back to vote for them in 2012. If that's the case we will need our moderates back.

But for the time being, sit back and enjoy a victory that was tough to achieve but that all Socialists, leadership, activistis, grassroots, all of them have fought inch by inch until the final victory.

ISTA, ISTA, ISTA, ESPAÑA ES SOCIALISTA!

2008-03-09T22:17:00.008Z

It's official now, Zapatero has won reelection with 169 seats to 153 for PP.

In the wise words of Alaistair Campbell, thank fuck for that.

We get a bigger majority to govern the country in a more comfortable way. Four more years of Socialism are exactly what Spain needs.

Rajoy conceded victory to Zapatero, but did it in a not very convincing way. For me the most important message to come out of PP's leadership mouth is we will change our opposition strategy. Less confrontation and more cooperation for the good of the country.

But the big news tonight is that PRESIDENT ZAPATERO HAS WON REELECTION IN SPAIN!

I want to thank you all the people who has read this blog for the past five months. I will keep writing for the next few days with post-election analysis. After that I will reflect on what to do with the blog and maybe change the topic slightly, but definitely enjoy blogging and hope to keep doing it in the future.

The final result 169 for PSOE, PP 153. The party still goes on. I would like to remember Isaias Carrasco murdered by ETA on Friday. This Socialist victory is in your honour. Rest in peace comrade.

More offical data

2008-03-09T20:30:00.005Z

With 51.34% of all votes officially counted:

PSOE: 172 seats

PP: 150 seats

Remember, 176 absolute majority.

Can't find any better word than BOLLOCKS, numbers are closing down between PSOE and PP, with 67% of all votes counted,

PSOE: 168
PP: 154

Pretty sure absolute majority seems pretty far, though the distance with PP is big enough to keep calm. More numbers to come faster now...

Andalucia

2008-03-09T20:14:00.004Z

Andalucia today also voted for their regional government. Polls and commentary are talking about a Socialist victory and the reelection of Manuel Chaves as President of Andalucia. However it could be he lost his absolute majority in the Regional Assembly.

New data as I'm writing, with 16% of all votes counted, PSOE 173 seats and PP 136. PP's vote should go up though. Turnout seems to be around 73% lower than in 2004 but anything over 70% is good news for Zapatero.

I just checked on my champagne bottle and it's chilled and ready to go...hopefully.

First votes counted

2008-03-09T20:09:00.002Z

With 10% of all votes counted the current result is:

PSOE: 173 seats
PP: 136 seats

Small share but the night is looking good.

First exit polls

2008-03-09T19:01:00.003Z

First exit polls at 8pm.

TVE TV Ipsos poll:

PSOE: 172-176 seats (45%)
PP: 148-152 seats (38.6%)

Absolute majority is on 176 so it could happen.

Cadena SER radio:

PSOE: 168-173 seats
PP: 145-149 seats

Antena 3 TV:

PSOE: 163-166 seats
PP: 149-152 seats

Cuatro TV:

PSOE: 168-173 seats
PP: 145-149 seats

T5 TV:

PSOE: 172-178 seats
PP: 142-148 seats

One hour to closing of the polls

2008-03-09T18:09:00.002Z

Election day is gone into dead heat. The second and final statement from the Interior Ministry on participation was 2 points lower than in 2004. At 5.30 pm 60.95% of the electorate had voted in comparison to 63.02% in 2004.

Furthermore I have been looking at numbers by regions and conservative regions are voting in greater numbers than Socialist ones. However, Cadena Ser radio is reporting that in Madrid, Socialist towns are voting in greater numbers than in the more conservative capital city. Madrid has already surpassed its turnout of 2004, projections claim at 7 pm.

In 15 min. TVE station is starting their eleciton special with first exit polls in 45 min. You can watch live online here.

Anecdote of the day

2008-03-09T14:33:00.005Z

Illan de Vacas, a little village near Toledo and Madrid, has a population of 6 people. Out of those 6 only 3 can vote. Under the law, every polling booth has to have three people overseeing the process and must remain open until 8pm. The obvious problem here is that the three people at the table are the only ones to vote, but by law (again) they can only introduce their ballot as agents after 8pm. This means that the three only people with a right to vote in Illan de Vacas are seating for 10 hours in front of a box waiting to cast their ballot even though noone else is going to show up to vote. The rules are the rules.

The picture above is the actuall polling station in the village. According to one of the agents they are twisting the rules a little bit by playing a game of domino and taking a little nap before 8pm.

(This is all true by the way).

First data

2008-03-09T14:04:00.003Z

Turnout is high at 2 pm, 40.7%, just 0.3 lower than in 2004. However I'm looking at region by region data and Socialists regions like Andalucia and Catalonia are low (around 37%) while Valencia, Madrid and Murcia, big conservative regions are much higher (47%).

Polls close at 8 pm and the first exit polls will be ready. Final results will come out around 10 pm. All of this Spanish time (GMT+1).

I will bring you any information we get as the day goes along.

Good news in Aragon where some marginals are in play. Participation is 42.4%, higher than average but more importantly Zaragoza and Huesca the two of the provinces that are more Socialist leaning are on 43.4% and 40.24% respectively, while Teruel, more conservative and PP's economic heavyweight Pizarro home region, is on 39.74%.

Still we need a higher turnout in Andalucia and Catalonia, they are key. More to come.

She's voting, are you?

2008-03-09T13:45:00.002Z

Two days after her dad was murdered by those that want to derail the democratic process she's gone cast her ballot... don't let the right win because you stayed home, VOTE!

...and a divisive PP

2008-03-08T14:17:00.003Z

Yesterday the joint Congressional condemnation for the assasination of Isaias Carrasco, became exactly what it should not have been, another show of division by PP.

During the closed door meeting, Ignacio Astarloa, PP's spokesperson for justice and security in Congress, demanded a mention to the end of the 2005 Congressional resolution allowing the Government to negotiate a peace process in the Basque Country. All the parties refused his demand as unnecessary in a short note of democratic unity. Afterwards, Joan Ridao, spokesperson for ERC, proposed to have all official spokespeople together to read the statement in a show of unity. Astarloa again refused and prefered to do it each one individually. Finally, Astarloa in his statement revealed two details of the negotiations: that the rest of the parties were against the derogation of the 2005 resolution and to include any mention that no political concessions would be offered in a future peace process (this second issue the parties thought wasn't related to the institutional condemnation). Before him, Aguirre, PP's President of Madrid, live in T5 TV station, after the assasination was known, accused the Government of calling Arnaldo Otegui, the Basque Gerry Adams, a 'man of peace'. Mariano Rajoy himself in the morning avoided any strong words but a 'people know what I think' escaped his lips.

The rest of the parties (PSOE, CiU, PNV, ERC, IU, EA, CHA, BNG and CC) all read the joint statement and did not answer questions from journalists. The democratic unity broken again by the same party that had done for the past four years.

A courageous daughter...

2008-03-08T14:01:00.003Z

Following on yesterday's murder of a Socialist comrade, I have here translated the words of Sandra Carrasco, daughter of Isaias, and 19 years of age. Her calm and strength yesterday was heart-stopping, people like her and her dad makes one be extremely proud to be part of the Socialist family in Spain.

'First of all I would like to thanks from the bottom of my heart the support of the village of Arrasate. Of those anonymous citizens that have come to me, my family, to offer their love and support in these hard times. Thank you to be with my mother, my brother Adei and my sister Ainara. I also want to use these cameras and mics to thanks the Socialists for being here with us.

My father has been killed for defending freedom, democracy and Socialist ideas. He has always been a courageous man, that stood up. And those that have killed him are just cowards.

But more than anything I want to ask for something. That is that the murder of my father is not manipulated by anyone. We are not going to let that happen. I, my mother, all of us are going to vote. And that is what I ask for. And those that want to show solidarity with my father, and with our pain, must go vote en masse on Sunday to tell the murderers that we are not going to take a single step back. Thank you'.

Campaigning tools

2008-03-07T15:52:00.003Z

As part of my masters on politics and communication I have had the great opportunity to attend a class with Philip Gould and Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair's chief strategists from 1997 until 2005, on campaigning techniques.

In the picture above we can see how PP strategists use the grid, a communication tool promoted by Campbell when working in Number 10, that helps structure the campaign's message for clarity of argumentation. PSOE's Ferraz HQ have been refurbished to use an open plant office similar to that of Clinton's 92 Little Rock HQ and Blair's 97 Millbank HQ.

The professionalisation of campaigning in Spain is developing at an extremely fast pace and it seems there are evidence that some of those techniques are coming from the anglosaxon world.

ETA kills again

2008-03-07T14:38:00.003Z

Public excitement, the democratic spirit, politicians talking to the people, everything has been shattered at 3 pm today. ETA has assasinated Isaias Carrasco, a former Socialist candidate to councillor in the village of Mondragon in the Basque Country. Carrasco was killed in front of his wife and daughter at their home's doorstep.

The official campaign has been cancelled and an emergency Congressional meeting has been called by President Zapatero at 7 pm today. Zapatero is flying back to Madrid from Malaga while the Interior Minister, Perez Rubalcaba, is coordinating activities already from the Ministry.

Isaias Carrasco was a PSOE candidate in the past May 2007 local elections and currently worked as a ticket officer in one of the motorways in the area.

This nonsense has got to stop, one cannot but dream of a day when we will have a democratic election in this country free of the fear of terrorism...

Out and about

2008-03-07T14:08:00.003Z

In an exercise of extreme egocentrism I would like to point out that Zapatero '08 has got a mention in Charlie Beckett's blog.

Charlie is the Director of the Polis Institute at the London School of Economics. You can check out his blog listed in the blogroll below, some of you might have seen it before as the link has been there for a while. The Polis Institute is a journalism and society think tank attached to the Media department at the LSE as well as the London College of Communications.

A big thanks to Charlie and the LSE Media department, where I'm enrolled, for their support.

The internet overtakes electoral law

2008-03-07T13:33:00.003Z

Following on yesterday's poll in El Periodic of Andorra, new polls abroad give us a peak on how things are looking before Sunday despite the legal ban enforced within Spain.

El Periodic on its final poll today puts PSOE at 42,6% and PP on 38,6%. PSOE goes up 0,2% and PP down 0,4% from yesterday's poll. This poll today was conducted by GESOP with 1,200 interviews higher than yesterday's with just 900.

The Times newspaper in London has also published a poll that puts PSOE up 3.8 points, the Socialists will get 43,1% of the vote to PP's 39,3%. Interestingly enough, The Times poll also shows a staggering 55,7% of males and 68,1% of females supporting PP's proposal for a contract for immigrants entering Spain.

I think these two polls give a pretty accurate picture of the situation at the moment. The Periodic poll also predicts a lower turnout than in 2004 (75,66%) at around 70%.

The campaign will draw to a close at midnight today, the blogosphere-led Project 80% (aimed at achieving a 80% turnout on Sunday) is on full swing, so wherever you are pick up your phone, laptop or any other way you can contact voters and let's get out the vote, remember low turnout hurts us and that's what PP has been playing at for the past four years. Don't let them play with our democratic system, vote!

UPyD-PP: a comparison

2008-03-06T18:41:00.004Z

One of my readers has challenged me to give further evidence of Diez being a puppet for PP. Firstly, I'd like to thank him for his comment that always enriches debate and secondly I will gladly accept his challenge.

Here are some comparisons in statements between Diez and the PP leadership:

'It's an obscenity the use of numbers to count the dead'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'It's very miserable of him to compare numbers of deaths'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 5, 2008.

'It means Zapatero is against the Pact for liberty and against terrorism'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'With the arrival of PSOE to power the Pact for liberty and against terroism is broken'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on June 2, 2006.

'When I say Spain breaks I mean a fracture of constitutional Spain'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 24, 2007.
'The secessionist menace, the breaking of the State, the fragmentation of the national sentiment. In other words, a great national crisis'- Jose Maria Aznar (PP) on October 4, 2007

'Those that don't put it up [the Spanish national flag] attack the citizenry'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'It's the flag that unites us all and it has to be put up in all the town halls of Spain'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on September 8, 2007.

'PSOE has stopped being a centralist party and started defending the nationalists' interests'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2008.
'PP defends better the interests of Spain and of all its citizens'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on February 22, 2008.

'To act against terrorism without political concessions'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'To support the Government in the anti-terrorist fight but without political concessions'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 27, 2006.

The fact is that Diez uses the same catastrophist language as Rajoy and Aznar and focuses her entire campaign on supporting PP's key attack lines. Furthermore, for all those that don't know who Rita Barbera is just simply say she's not your moderate conservative of the likes of Gallardon and Villalobos but rather part of the hardline within PP, more Aguirre style.

A vote for UPyD is a vote for PP

2008-03-06T16:16:00.007Z

After Rosa Diez graciously hanged around with Rita Barbera, the infamous PP Mayor of Valencia, during the regional festivities, do we need any more prove that Diez and her new party are nothing more than a puppet for PP?

Let images speak for themselves. Barbera known for her staunch partisanship would never have invited anyone from PSOE to attend her populist rallies around Valencia capital. Diez has shown her true colours now and nothing she says can change her image or that of UPyD.

I'd like to know what Fernando Savater has to say about this picture though, as he always claims their new party is leftwing to the core, don't think Barbera would be his favourite companion...

A final push

2008-03-06T14:38:00.002Z

We are three days away from election day. No polls allowed anymore, the campaign finishes tomorrow as Saturday will be left by law for citizens to think and make up their minds for the Sunday vote. Having said that electoral laws obviously don't apply in Andorra where today El Periodic newspaper has published a poll that puts the Socialists 3.4 points ahead of PP. Frankly, the poll argues that PSOE lost some votes after the second debate and that participation is expected now around 64%, I find those facts hard to believe. The poll was conducted only with 600 phone interviews which doesn't seem very thorough. Also all final polls in Spain have given PSOE and advantage of around 5-6 points so would doubt a 900 interview poll would give a more accurate picture, still it's good to remind us that we have three days to mobilise leftwing voters and get out the vote.

Socialist activists need to go out there for a final push to win big on Sunday, leftwing voters have to go vote, we need a high turnout to win and let the right know promoting abstention without providing proposals for the country doesn't work in Spain.

Freedom for Western Sahara

2008-03-05T23:13:00.002Z

Some of you may know, some of you might have never heard of this conflict in your lives. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised. This conflict, the same as plenty of other conflicts in Africa and Asia, have been forgotten by us Westeners.

However in Spain the Western Sahara conflict is still alive and kicking. Thousands of Saharaui children come every summer to Spain to study and enjoy a well deserved holiday after plenty of years of missery in the Tindouf refuggee camps in Algeria.

The conflict goes as follows. Western Sahara used to be a colony of Spain all the way up to 1975 when the so-called 'Green March' by Moroccan troops and civilians in the last days of Franco's dictatorship invaded the territory. After Mauritania and Morocco divided the Western Sahara territory, the Polisario Front, the Saharaui independence movement, declared war and managed to expel Mauritanian forces though not the Moroccan ones. In 1991 a UN-backed peacekeeping force, MINURSO, forced a ceasefire enforced until today. Morocco on one side and the Polisario and Algeria on the other keep reclaiming autonomy within a Moroccan state the first and an independent Saharaui state the latter.

I, as a Socialist and a former activist for the freedom of the Saharaui people, believe it is time Zapatero, if reelected on March 9, pushes for a final solution, self-determination, to the Western Sahara problem. The Polisario Front and plenty of Saharauis have felt betrayed by us Socialists who negotiated with Morocco our immigration policy and fishing quotas. And as much as it might hurt it's true. But we can't anymore turn a blind eye to the sufferings of plenty of people stranded in the middle of the Sahara dessert waiting to go back to the territory is rightfully theirs. I know Morocco is our most important southern neighbour, I know our immigration, security and fisheries policies are extremely dependent on them. But an injustice as big as that suffered by the Saharaui people for 33 years embarrasess me as a Spanish Socialist and a friend of the Saharaui people as most PSOE activists are.

We, I believe, are going to win on March 9, it's about time we start demanding what we expect from our incoming government...and freedom for Western Sahara is long overdue.

More international support for Zapatero

2008-03-05T14:53:00.002Z

Today the left-leaning French newspaper Liberation dedicates an entire edition of the paper to the Spanish general election and praises Zapatero's fusion of economic modernisation with social progress.

On the other hand, the platform to support Zapatero, created by a group of artists and other intellectuals, has added new names to their support base for a Socialist victory on March 9, including Carlos Fuentes, Daniel Barenboim, Bernardo Bertolucci, Helen Caldicott, Ian Gibson, Joseph Stiglitz and Gervasio Deffer.

A very unhelpful little girl

2008-03-05T12:11:00.004Z

I find curious the fact that on Monday's debate Rajoy mentioned (again) an imaginary little girl in his closing statement and so did Obama on his concession speech in Texas... will Rajoy use it as well in his concession speech on Sunday? The girl isn't bringing much luck to her candidates it seems.

The Church radicalises itself

2008-03-04T12:34:00.003Z

Antonio Maria Rouco Varela, archbishop of Madrid, has been elected today head of the Spanish Catholic Church, the outgoing leader, Ricardo Blazquez, will be vice-president.

Rouco Varela, the leader of the ultra-conservative section of the Catholic Church in Spain is well known across the country for his opposition to the Zapatero government as well as most of its social reforms including gay marriages, abortion law, citizen's education, peace process and stem-cell research. Ricardo Blazquez, a moderate, beat Rouco Varela for the leadership in 2005 by just one vote but hasn't been able to hold to the position after the further radicalisation of the Church in the last four years.

This latest development should make Zapatero rethink his original position and start a review of the State-Church pact. Spain deserves a more inclusive Catholic leadership than the one just elected.

The final blow on the economy

2008-03-04T12:08:00.003Z

Pedro Solbes, the Socialist Finance Minister met the business council in Madrid yesterday to explain the Socialist economic programme for the next four years. During the closing statements the President of the Council directly stated the Council's preference for PSOE to run the economy after the Sunday election. Diaz Ferran thanked Solbes for lowering the tax on businesses from 35 to 30% and said 'on March 10 we'll be knocking on your door to continue working together as we did these past four years'.

The statement was an important one to reassure investors and businesses that Zapatero and Solbes make the best team to deal with the current global credit crunch. However, the big surprise of the day came when Manuel Pizarro, PP's strongman on the economy, went to Onda Cero radio and accused Diaz Ferran of favouring PSOE because he was going to personally benefit from it and slagging off the entire business council.

I think after yesterday's debate, Zapatero got the big 'mo' for the last four days of the campaign. Rajoy and Pizarro are looking like dead men walking. Pizarro's accusations yesterday weren't just pure bitter rant, they actually show how when things don't go their way, PP leaders attack anyone on their way in the most intransigent of ways.

Moreover, the monthly consumer trust index (ICC-ICO) shows a greater trust on the economy by the electorate. Trust on the future of the economy has gone up 5.9%, current domestic situation (6%) and that of the country in general (5%). Seems PP's economic catastrophism message is deflating like a balloon.

Flash polls: Zapatero wins big

2008-03-04T00:06:00.007Z

Left leaning MSM:

Publico newspaper/La Sexta TV: Zapatero 49.2%, Rajoy 29.8%

Instituto Opina: Zapatero 50.8%, Rajoy 29%; who will win the election: Zapatero 85.3%, Rajoy 14.7%

El Pais newspaper: Zapatero 53%, Rajoy 38%. Headline: Zapatero wins with strength and arguments.

Righ leaning MSM:

El Mundo newspaper: Zapatero 49%, Rajoy 40.9%. Headline is Rajoy challenges in vain Zapatero to defend Spanish language in Catalonia.

ABC newspaper: Zapatero 51.2%, Rajoy 49.8%

La Razon newspaper: Rajoy offers solutions (they are VERY rightwing). Their editor on the radio just a minute ago said according to their experience polls aren't necessary to give a reasonable answer, I guess he feels their opinion is more important. Very journalistic, wouldn't you say?

Other MSM:

La Vanguardia newspaper headline: Zapatero wins. Their ten pundits vote Zapatero 5.5, Rajoy 4.5 out of 10.

Debate...

2008-03-03T23:42:00.003Z

The final debate is over, and I'm really confused...I seriously am.

I feel Zapatero proposed plenty of policies and ideas for the next four years. Rajoy has worked well however, he's been calmer and focused on tough issues for the Socialists. Zapatero has failed to settle certain issues. In the closing statements Zapatero has done much better, smiling and connecting well with the camera. Rajoy in his closest stament has gone back to his little girl that to be fair didn't connect the first time and produced plenty of jokes on the internet.

But the worst moment I think has been when they have interrupted each other too much in the terrorism debate. There Zapatero has gone too agressive. But to be fair Rajoy was lying through and through in his argument.

Overall, as a Socialist Zapatero connected with me well, even if I was going to vote for them anyways. But the key ones are independents and there I think those expecting proposals got what they expected from Zapatero and didn't from Rajoy. However Rajoy did push Zapatero a bit and Zapatero got slightly unsettled.

Having said that, Cuatro TV (left leaning station) has given Zapatero 50'8% and Rajoy 29% with 16% calling a draw. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. I don't know if I am too tense to watch the video impartially or if their is skewed to the left. I will bring you more polls in a bit as they starting coming, but if Cuatro is roughly right in their prediction I think we could be looking to a bigger majority than expected, something (praising myself here) I predicted in this blog a while ago here.

Pundits on radio and TV are saying that Rajoy has done good but conviction was lacking and voters perceived that. He was looking like a serious oppossition leader, but not as President.

Last campaign video

2008-03-03T20:25:00.002Z

A winter comeback this week is worrying PSOE strategists, so they've made this video that will run until Friday evening the last campaign day before 'quite Saturday'.

Get out the vote through and through!

Final debate tonight.

2008-03-03T20:11:00.003Z

The final debate, six days before polling day starts in about 40 minutes. As the one before you can watch it live in El Pais website.

Spanish elections in British media:

You can watch a small BBC report on the first debate here (the video on the top right hand corner of the page).

And an editorial by the Financial Times today here

I will bring you a summary of the debate when it ends and whichever flash polls we might have then.

ETA calls for Basques to abstain

2008-03-01T12:10:00.002Z

ETA yesterday bombed PSOE's local offices in Derio, a village in the Basque Country, at night having warned of the attack beforehand.

Later on, in a note to Gara newspaper encouraged the Basque people to abstain in the March 9 election to delegitimise the Spanish state within Basque territory.

It seems to me that what ETA is really looking for is a PP victory in March 9. Elorriaga yesterday in the FT admitted that PP's electoral strategy is the promotion of abstention because it hurts PSOE (a participation below 70% will make the race too close to call). And now ETA seems to promote the same view within the Basque country, a more Socialist-leaning region.

The reason is that for those hardliners within ETA it's become a problem the good image the Zapatero government has in the Basque country. An inclusive Spanish central government means less support for ETA in his own turf. ETA hardliners would rather see the divisive discourse promoted by PP that will drive Basque moderate nationalists into more radical stances against an intransigent Spanish central government.

ETA's main weakness is the diminishing social support it enjoys in the Basque country. A return to a more centralist conservative government will get some of that support back to them. We should not let go on ETA, they are weaker than ever, a return to divisive politics under PP would mean a return to a stronger ETA at home in the Basque country.

New polling data

2008-02-29T21:40:00.003Z

El Periodico newspaper- PSOE (42.5%), PP (37%).

Telecinco TV- PSOE (44,2%), PP (38,6%).

Expansion financial newspaper- PSOE (41,7%), PP (38,2%).

Publico newspaper- PSOE (44,7%), PP (39,3%).

FT on Spanish election

2008-02-29T21:33:00.003Z

The Financial Times today has published an article on the conservative strategy to promote abstention and Zapatero's get out the vote strategy. You can read it here

Video blitz

2008-02-29T20:33:00.003Z

'Great' Aznar moments (I)

2008-02-29T13:31:00.003Z

'Are you suggesting NATO should bomb Lebanon?'- Stephen Shackur
'If is necessary yes'- J. M. Aznar
(Aznar interviewed in BBC's Hardtalk show during the Israeli-Hizbullah crisis in summer 2006)

'Raul Castro represents the continuation of tiranny in Cuba'
(Aznar's statement on his way back from a dinner party in Lybia hosted by Muammar Al Gadaffi, according to human rights organisations Cuba currently has 234 political prisoners, Lybia 450).

'Look me in the eyes, I am telling you Iraq has weapons of mass destruction'
(Aznar's statement to Congress on the eve of the Iraq war).

'Who are they to say one cannot drink and drive?'
(Aznar criticising the safety warnings by the Road Safety Agency during the Annual Wine Convention in 2007. In that same year 1,700 people died in car accidents in Spain).

'Young fascists are tired of giving and not receiving, tired of listening to promises and receiving failures [...] I, as a youth, and having read a copy of the Complete Works by Jose Antonio Primo de Rivera, I have taken a decision.'
(Aznar writing on SP magazine in 1969 as a young falangista- Francoist official and only party- of his admiration for Primo de Rivera's writing. Primo de Rivera was the main ideologue of Spanish fascism).

'I speak Catalan in the intimacy of my home'
(Aznar courting the Catalan nationalist leader, Jordi Puyol, for a coalition government in 1996).

Populist fears made in PP

2008-02-29T13:13:00.002Z

Rajoy has lost the battle of ideas during these last four years because he never accepted his defeat in 2004. He has spent four years blaming others of his own failures and hasn't done a critical self-evaluation of what made him lose the election then.

The campaign arrived and he found himself rethorically empty, only attacks no proposals. But then he found the issue that conservatives across Europe like most, immigration. For a country like Spain where its population emmigrated in the mid 1900s and that now receives immigration, this is a dangerous development. El Pais newspaper today has published an article showing that 2 out of 3 Spanish kids are today looked after by foreign babysitters and Consumer magazine that 90% of carers for the elderly and other dependent people in Spain are also immigrants. How could our country cope without those people? People that accept lower salaries to do jobs Spaniards don't want to do anymore, long hours, sometimes even sacrificing their own families' welfare to produce a living wage.

Rajoy should know he's playing with fire when appealing to the emotional side of the electorate. And I ask myself, is it really worth it to incite hatred and fear to win an election? And more importantly is he willing to sacrifice Spanish values and our democratic consensus that took us so long to achieve for personal gain?

Zapatero must win to let the Spanish right know that there are certain values dearly hold by the Spanish people that cannot ever be put into question. Our democratic system and our image as a welcoming society are at stake on March 9. You've been warned.

Polls on the debate.

2008-02-25T23:53:00.006Z

Who won the debate according to flash polls:

Cuatro TV- Zapatero 45.4%, Rajoy 33.4% (Men: 63.6% Zapatero, 36.4% Rajoy; Women: 51.8% Zapatero, 48.2% Rajoy)

La Sexta TV- Zapatero 45.7% Rajoy 30.1%

Antena 3 TV- Zapatero 45%, Rajoy 39%

El Mundo newspaper- Zapatero won by little but won't say before tomorrow's edition.

La Vanguardia newspaper set of experts- Zapatero 5.5, Rajoy 5.1 out of 10.

El Pais newspaper- Zapatero 53%, Rajoy 39%

Just read that this debate is the first one to have been available for deaf people. I have to say little things like that show PSOE's continuing concern with democratic accessibility.

Debate summary and apology

2008-02-25T23:16:00.003Z

First of all I have to apologise for not have blogged live the debate, but wasn't able to watch and write at the same time on my laptop.

Secondly, Zapatero, I believe, has won the debate tonight. It felt great to have presidential debates back in Spain and frankly that only has happened under Socialist governments.

The debate started slowly, with the candidates observing each other tricks, and then moved into top gear when entering the issue of ETA's terrorism and inmigration. Rajoy has gone really tough and made a massive mistake by accusing Zapatero of betraying the terrorist victims again (he mentioned it in Parliament many times before).

As the debate was moving forward, Zapatero started liking himself. He sorted through the economic section quite well showing graphs and hard data on growth and employment. The second section on social policy, Rajoy knew he couldn't beat Zapatero's government on social policy with the new dependency and equality laws as well as pensions and minimum wage. He moved quickly into inmigration, a populist right wing topic, talking about crime, illegal inmigration and public services. Zapatero here did well in two things, he avoided getting into the inmigration debate by sticking to the long list of Socialist social policy achievements and then adressed the issue of inmigration reminding Rajoy on how many inmigrants fight and die in the Spanish armed forces. The third section on foreign and security policy, Rajoy went into overdrive accusing Zapatero of betraying the victims. Talking heads on the radio and TV are all mentioning how that was a massive mistake by Rajoy reminding voters of his nastiest side that some were already forgetting. Zapatero did well not accepting the proposition that he betrayed them and then reminded voters of Rajoy's alliance with Bush and his support for the Iraq war. In his final statement Rajoy gave a very strange speech on a little girl growing in Spain that didn't connect well in its imagery neither in its supposedly aspirational tone. Zapatero did a similar speech but it connected better and his delivery was good, avoiding reading and using a calmed but firm voice.

On a personal level, Rajoy failed to support the Ebro water plan that my local conservative government in Murcia has always defended and won many votes out of. Zapatero forced him to state if he was going to propose its construction again and he failed to say yes. I hope my fellow Murcians will take note of his statement when casting their vote on March 9.

More on flash polls as they come out in a bit.

First presidential debate tonight!

2008-02-25T17:54:00.005Z

The first presidential debate in Spain in 15 years is 3 hours away. It can be watched live in El Pais online website.

For those of you that don't understand Spanish, I'll be blogging the debate live as it happens as I did with the economic one last week.

So tune in for some good mano-a-mano between Zapatero and Rajoy. If it goes as the weekly PMQs normally does, it should be a good one for us. But as any good political strategist would tell you, it's all about lowering expectations... so frankly expectations are so high that Zapatero really needs to shine tonight to keep the momentum PSOE finds itself in since last week's debate. We are now four points ahead of PP from 1.5 just three weeks ago.

Those annoying third party candidates

2008-02-25T17:04:00.004Z

This past Sunday, Ralph Nader, the left-of-the-Democrats independent candidate announced in Tim Russert's Meet the Press that he's running again for the US Presidency. Then he went on to attack Democratic candidates Obama and Clinton for their 'spineless' candidacies and the need for someone with substance in the left to lead the country. His annoucement has shocked the DNC that fears another 2000 campaign when Nader took away support from Al Gore in the key state of Florida. On the other hand, Republicans are delighted with his announcement and attacks on the Democrats.

Nader's isn't an isolated case. In plenty of elections disgruntled 'I know better' egocentric so-called progressive candidates enter the fray harming the electoral possibilities of mainstream left wing parties. It springs to mind the case of Rosa Diez in Spain. A Socialist Euro MP for many years, she contested the leadership of the party twice (1997 and 2001) and twice lost. So realising that she couldn't be a senior figure within PSOE, she started her own party. UPyD was launched this past summer in Spain and is participating in the March 9 general election. Diez claims her new party is PSOE without Zapatero's support for peripheral nationalisms in Spain (i.e.: Catalan and Basque mainly). However, her entire campaign so far (and we are two weeks ago from polling day) has been focused on attacking Zapatero and the Socialists and playing into PP's electoral strategy. And she's getting around 4-5% of the vote which could give her party one seat in Congress and take it away from PSOE in an very tight race.

Nader, like Diez, should know better. If they really cared about the electorate they would step aside on these elections where they know real decissions are at stake. Especially when they don't present any new policy and just focus on slagging off those progressive parties that can actually win. Such is the case of the 2008 Spanish and American elections and their bids are nothing but big circus of egocentrism and nothing to do with the good of their countries.

Famous third party candidacies (not necessarily all bad ones though):

- Ken Livingstone (London mayoral election 2000). Ken Livingstone presented himself as an independent candidate opposing the official Labour candidate Frank Dobson. Livingstone won the race with Dobson coming third behind Tory Steve Norris.

- George Galloway (UK General election 2005). Left the Labour Party in opposition to the war in Iraq and created his own party, RESPECT. He won the seat for Bethnal Green and Bow defeating incumbent Oona King from Labour.

- Ciutadans (Catalan regional elections 2006). Claiming to represent the interests of Spanish-identified Catalan voters, Ciutadans within months of its foundation won three seats in the Catalan Assembly.

- Ralph Nader (US general election 2000 and 2004). Nader, running as a Green candidate in 2000, claim there was no difference between Al Gore and Bush Jr's bids. His popularity then took away key votes from Gore in the state of Florida that eventually made Bush president.

- Joe Lieberman (US Mid-term elections 2007). Having been de-selected by his own party (and the liberal blogosphere) for his support for the war in Iraq, Lieberman ran as an independent beating Ned Lamont, the official Democratic candidate, to retain his seat in the Senate.

The official campaign starts!

2008-02-21T23:32:00.006Z

The campaign is officially on. Zapatero from Madrid and Rajoy from Cadiz kicked off their presidential campaigns.

The economic debate tonight gave me a big boost of optimism, Solbes destroyed Pizarro with voter-friendly language, visuals and tough attacks on the conservative agenda. Certainly Pizarro's proposal to scrap the current housing policy really hurts PP with young voters and women.

I also just got a letter from the head of the Socialist Congressional list for Murcia, my constituency, asking for my vote.

PSOE has also put out a very interesting campaign. Its PEB asks for people to go vote (abstention hurts us) at any cost. But the video shows a Socialist young voter going to pick up his mum in the village to take her to the polling booth even if he know she's going to vote PP. Nice positive message, will it work? I think so, bold nevertheless.

Economic debate live blogging

2008-02-21T21:19:00.028Z

Pedro Solbes, the Economic Minister, is debating Manuel Pizarro, former CEO of Endesa electrics, and PP candidate.

Solbes is hitting hard, giving lots of data and explaining it well. Pizarro is trying to go into abstract issues. Solbes should keep it up, go hard on Pizarro, he's twice the man.

Household economy now... the trickiest part for us, let's see.

Solbes presenting data, might need to simplify a bit the discourse, too technical I think. Salaries growing over inflation and attacking PP on the famous 'decretazo' that froze salaries for two years in the early 2000s.
Pizarro now attacking with polling data and the last economic data since the credit crunch...Solbes needs to hit hard in his reply now, this is the most crucial point of the debate!!

Another graph by Solbes, nice little touch, a big bar graph with Spain at the top of GDP growth in the EU.

Solbes turn now...

Great point by Solbes, Pizarro wants polling data, Solbes just hit him with polling data showing Socialists are more trusted to deal with the present crisis. Nice!

30 billion euros would be the cost of the fiscal reform proposed by PP, Solbes is asking Pizarro which cuts are they going to make to pay for it.

Pizarro is going nuclear now, saying they will cut the money from the negotiation with terrorists! PP's classical strategy, no solution then demagogy.

Solbes just called Pizarro a demagogue, read my mind. He's attacking Pizarro on housing policy because PP proposes to scrap the housing ministry, bad call by PP, housing is a key issue these days with young people in Spain. And they get to vote...

Solbes on a great Socialist policy, pensions gone up and he's showing graphics on live prime time TV, classic! Pizarro's face has just gone pale.

Solbes has just shown the cover of conservative El Mundo newspaper from 1994 where Pizarro defends the privatisation of the pension scheme. Ouch!

Pizarro is not coming out well... going back on the apparent lack of trust on PSOE to run the economy, which polls show isn't true. He goes back to macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in the past months because of the global credit crunch. That's not a good strategy when you talk about household economy, one should stick to easy examples people can relate to. I'd say Pizarro 0 Solbes 1 so far in the debate.

Little break on the debate, the moderator in his concluding remarks has mentioned 'the scrapping of a ministry', little nice hiccup that leaves viewers with the image of PP scrapping PSOE's popular housing policy.

Debate back again with next block of questions, electoral proposals...

Pizarro is far too liberal for the Spanish electorate, I'm pretty liberal but I know my co-citizens aren't there yet.

Pizarro has first defended the fight against climate change and is now talking about keeping coal as a source of energy!! nice shot at the marginals in Asturias, big mining region in northern Spain.

R+D investment under PP was 0.5%, Solbes mentions how he has put it up to 1.5% and pledging up to European standards in the next four years. Solbes now going into education policy and how is dependent on regional governments and PP regions are bottom of the table.

84 bilion euros spent on infrastructure under the Socialist Government, the same amount as all the cohesion funds ever received by Spain from the EU since its inclusion.

Pizarro is showing graphs as well now, quick aides during the break.

Solbes showing Socialists policies on gender equality and the new dependency law. Two popular policies with the women vote.

Solbes back to housing, good issue for us.

Closing statements...

Pizarro's closing statement on the current crisis as PSOE's fault. Also how PSOE has been creating political division and partisan economic institutions. Not very good I would say.

Solbes talking about how Spain is best prepared to face the current crisis. He's proposing a choice of vote, pessimism versus optimism. Solbes going on his record, healthy public finances and high social spending on competitiveness. PP, he points out, tax cuts and social spending cuts. Solbes points out how he has always worked in the public sector serving the country unlike his opponent.

The debate is finished... Antena 3 is producing a poll in 40 minutes but I feel Solbes has won big time. Solbes 4 - Pizarro 1, in no single issue Pizarro has won. Talking heads in Onda Cero radio, conservative radio station, are spinning for PP but I think people will see through the smoke screen. Nevertheless they are saying Solbes has won.

These talking heads are shameless, outrageous spinning, not a single Socialist on the after-debate commentary. They are even defending demagogy as a campaign technique! Voters will definitely see through, let's see the poll though.

PP's lies about ETA's terrorism

2008-02-21T20:48:00.004Z

A video on PP's negotiation with ETA in 1998 that they now claim never existed. In it one can see Aznar calling ETA, Basque Liberation Movement. As I've said many times before, they lie and lie and lie...

PP copies his campaign from Latin America.

2008-02-21T18:38:00.003Z

I found out today that PP's new slogan and PEB for the official campaign starting tonight at 10.00 pm Spanish time, is copied from two Latin American campaigns ran by Antonio Sola, the Spanish neocon strategist.

The slogan 'Con cabeza y corazón' (roughtly translated as 'with reason and heart') is almost an exact copy from the conservative Patriotic Party of Guatemala slogan 'Mano dura, cabeza y corazón' (again translated roughly as 'firm hand, reason and heart').

The video is copied from Felipe Calderon's presidential campaign in Mexico, again designed by Sola. In the video, one can hear Zapatero talking about economic growth while a family sees their household stuff taken away repossesion style. Frankly, I think noone in Spain would go as far as fearing repossesion, that's why I think the video overmakes it a bit in the line of Sola's overdramatisation in his campaigns.

PP official sources claim Sola is there just to advise Rajoy on telegenity and 'tie picking', they make me laugh. They lie and lie and lie and got no shame. However, I don't think this is a story big enough to be embarrasing to PP, it only excites us political junkies. Note this is not the first time PP has copied a campaign slogan, I reported a similar case on this blog some months ago.

Cannot find the videos on YouTube, but you can see them in Cadena Ser's website here

News of the day.

2008-02-18T17:16:00.004Z

A very quite day in the campaign trail, but rumour has it that El Mundo newspaper, in perferct coordination with PP and its leadership, is preparing several shock-and-awe headlines for the last days of the campaign. PSOE should be ready for it, frankly the lot at El Mundo are a nasty bunch that deserve every name in the world but that of journalists.

On a diferent issue, I've got several texts and email messages from friends asking why is it Spain doesn't recognise Kosovo as an independent country. Many of you must have guessed already, but the reason is that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence cannot be acknowledged by Spain because it would pose a precedent for the Basque Country to take the same action.

Finally one for your diaries', remember the first debate of the campaign season will be this coming Thursday between Super-Minister of the economy Pedro Solbes and PP's Manuel Pizarro. The time hasn't been decided yet but assume 10 pm prime time unless the parties arrange for something special (that exact time is the official opening of the formal campaign). The channel will be Antena 3 which hopefully I'll be able to get on streaming online.

New poll and BIG warning

2008-02-16T19:44:00.003Z

The most prestigious poll in Spain, CIS, has given PSOE an advantage of just 1.5 points over PP in voting intention for the March 9 election.

Although Zapatero's personal numbers are high and Rajoy's are pathetically low, conservative PP keeps closing the gap as election day draws closer. The official campaign hasn't started yet, we haven't had debates yet, but PP's campaign is light years ahead of PSOE's, and that is worrying me a lot more than our programme being far ahead of theirs.

Noone debates the fact that this election is crucial, for us is about further modernisation both social and economic, for PP is about rolling back social liberalism and getting back their caciquist control of the economy.

Today however we saw how things can change and PSOE can hit back at PP. Felipe Gonzalez, former President from 1982 to 1996, has shown the way and PSOE leadership should follow his line. He stood up in a podium in Barcelona and bashed every single PP leader hard, where it hurts. Stop the nice-guy campaigning, it has failed us and can make us lose the election. If they are nasty so can we be. Spain is definitely left-leaning that's why PSOE has a comparative electoral advantage, conservatives know it as well and they have gone negative. They are gaining ground day by day, their noise neutralises our message. We need to hit back and we need to do it soon. Maybe Gonzalez should join the electoral team, he's the best and most experience campainger this party has and we need him now. There's a reason why he won four elections in a row. Time to wake up, the CIS poll this week has given as a warning next one could be too late.

Zapatero gathers support in Europe.

2008-02-16T18:03:00.002Z

Zapatero's reelection bid has now got a website to gather support from fellow Europeans.

You can find the website here

Two Nobel Prize winners, Gunter Grass and Jose Saramago, have already joint the platform's manifesto.

Our home-grown Lynton Crosby?

2008-02-14T17:25:00.002Z

It has emerged that Antonio Sola, a political consultant from the Madrid firm Ostos & Sola, has been advising Rajoy since September on the campaign trail.

Sola is a conservative political consultant of the neocon school. He has advised campaigns in Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina and Guatemala. But where his campaign skills have been more prominent was in the last Mexican presidential campaign when he got Felipe Calderon elected president. He was the creator of Calderon's campaign slogans such as 'Citizens behind bars, criminals on the streets' and 'A firm hand, passion for Mexico'.

Sola copies the campaigning style of Lynton Crosby and Karl Rove by using demagogy, manipulation and sensationalism to appeal to the emotional core of voters in issues such as immigration or religion. That will explain Rajoy's latest turn to a tough agenda on immigration, abortion and gay marriages among others. His business partner, Gloria Ostos, has been behind several of the so-called 'spontaneous' demonstrations of the religious right since 2004.

Sola is a close friend of Jose Maria Aznar and collaborates with the neocon FAES thinktank. If PP has got Sola, PSOE should be alert, his campaign style is tough and difficult to beat, PSOE will need to rebutt all the demagogy and populism with clear and concise messages. It also seems now Rajoy has made his mind up about the debates, he's blocking the negotiations because he knows he's weak in face-to-face debates. I think he's ready to avoid a debate to focus on populist messages against the Socialist more complex policy proposals.

It's going to be a close race.

Time to deal with Gibraltar.

2008-02-12T18:43:00.000Z

After the latest ship accident on Gibraltarian waters affecting the Spanish coast, it's time Spain deals with the greater threat Gibraltar has become.

Let's be clear, I'm not trying to make a patriotic statement here. I couldn't care less whether Gibraltar stays British or becomes Spanish. But when the British government keeps using Gibraltar (Tireless nuclear sub, Samothraki, Sierra Nava, New Flame,...) as a dumping site away from its own isles, it becomes a problem for both the Gibraltarian and the Spanish people.

I find it quite interesting that I have read not a single mention of the New Flame case in the British media, not even a single one. I would like to know why the British government and media feel Gibraltar isn't worth their attention as British citizens.

The Spanish government has to seriously take into consideration the actual situation of complete indifference taken by the UK towards the extremely serious environmental situation developing in Gibraltar. Because they are British territorial waters, the Spanish government cannot enter them and sort out problems and sea traffic. But obviously if something goes wrong, the problem is for us.

I'm not demanding the classic 'Gibraltar is Spain' solution. I'm asking that the UK takes serious action about the disastrous environmental problems its attitude is creating. And that Spain forces such action on the UK. Enough is enough.

Live interviews.

2008-02-12T17:28:00.001Z

Cuatro TV station has carried out two in-depth interviews. One on Monday with Rajoy and Tuesday with Zapatero. The interviewer was Iñaki Gabilondo, one of my favourite journalists. Conservatives hate him because he's definitely left-leaning, though he's not scared to push whoever whenever he thinks is necessary, as he did with Zapatero in this interview.

Overall I think Zapatero came out better, specially on the economy which is going to be the key battleground. Rajoy as always very 'on message', very pessimistic though. More substance came out of Zapatero's mouth than Rajoy's.

Also important to know is that one million more people watched the President. I think this means voters want to hear the details of the socialist manifesto, while they know what message is going to come out of PP. Different is the fact that PP's negative message is sticking, as polls show. So far my personal opinion is that PSOE's message is more attractive to voters but it isn't easily getting through PP's noise. Communication is going to be key, again debate, debate, debate, our path to success.

For Spanish-speakers you can watch the interviews here

Rajoy and the audacity of idiocity

2008-02-12T12:38:00.000Z

Rajoy, PP's candidate to the Presidency of Spain, thinks that Spanish people are stupid and have no memory. We know you have been a public official before mr. Rajoy and we know you weren't very good at it. In fact, you are by far the worst Minister of the Interior this country has ever had.

This is no subjective conclusion, we have facts:

- Highest homicide rate in Spanish democratic history, 2001-2002, when Rajoy was Interior Minister, the number was 1,251. Under the current Socialist Party, homicides are down to 987 in 2007. Fact.

- After the Socialist Party lost power in 1996, it left behind 125,000 police officers. In eight years of conservative PP government that number actually went down to 118,000 (7,000 less officers). Under the current Socialist government, in 2007 we have in Spain 136,000 officers, 17,000 new officers. Fact.

- The PP government spent in 2003 0,49% of its GDP in public safety, the Zapatero government has put that number up to 0,60% of the GDP. Fact.

There you go, facts versus demagogy, don't let PP supporters tell you conservatives are better at keeping you safe, because it's just a big fat lie. Fact.

The radio host that came in from the cold.

2008-02-11T17:15:00.000Z

Jimenez Losantos is known throughout Spain as the bishops' star host in COPE radio. Known for his ultra right wing stances and bitter attacks on the left and anyone on the right that's not a hawk, it was no surprise that in 2006 he took on PP's Mayor of Madrid for his 'soft' positions in his radio show. Unfortunately for him, the Mayor, sued him for insults and defamation against his person.

Rajoy removed the Mayor out of the Congressional lists for the election, as I reported here a while ago, forced by the hardliners within PP, many close to Losantos, himself an influential figure in rigt wing circles in Spain. That was seen as a sign of weakness by Rajoy but he wasn't ready for the bombshell that follows...

Losantos has called Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, Acebes, Secretary General of PP and Zaplana, official spokesperson for PP, to declare against Gallardon, the Mayor of Madrid, in court! Rajoy has fallen in his own dithering trap. He has let this nutter run freely for the sake of winning an election and now Losantos has got him into serious trouble. If these senior PP officials don't testify against Gallardon, Losantos will certainly retaliate, if they do they will be testifying against a member of their own party, and one proud of its internal cohesion as well.

How's Rajoy going to get out of this one? certainly not looking good. Hopefully they'll testify before election day...

Losantos's statement on air against Gallardon:

'The Mayor of Madrid doesn't want to know who kills people by the hundreds in his own city'

- Gallardon was Mayor at the time of the 2004 Madrid bombings, Losantos is the greatest exponent of the 'conspiracy theory' that blames Basque terrorism instead of Al-Qaeda for the massacre although the courts have ruled that it was Al-Qaeda alone that carried out the attacks.

The online video revolution.

2008-02-11T17:13:00.000Z

After the absolutely brilliant Obama 'Yes we can' online video, a new one has come out about McCain... again fantastic, have a look...

The arts with Zapatero.

2008-02-09T13:10:00.000Z

Musicians and actors have made this video to support Zapatero's reelection bid.

On a personal note, pretty proud Joaquín Sabina, my favourite musician, is the first guy on the video.

Quote of the day.

2008-02-09T12:56:00.000Z

'Today there are no real right wing parties in Europe. The majority are becoming social democratic ones and don't talk about the issues people really care about, like inmigration. The only exception is Partido Popular (PP) in Spain, a real right wing party'

Filip Dewinter
Leader of Vlaams Belang, the notorious Belgian extreme right party.

Day and night of political endorsements.

2008-02-08T11:23:00.000Z

Zapatero has today recived the public support of the independent National Research Council and soon there will be a manifesto endorsing him from the scientific community called 'Science and University with Zapatero'.

Rajoy has received the support of the Spanish Catholic Church.

No need to go any further. 21st century Europe, which party you think is better prepared to keep the country on its modernising path? Science or religion?

Crazy electoral promises, made in PP (II)

2008-02-08T11:00:00.000Z

This section is going to grow faster than I thought (don't underestimate right wing paranoia as a force of nature when it comes to policy production).

Rajoy and inmigration. Rajoy has come out with a new legislative paradigm, the law of local customs. He has come out with the 'great' idea of creating a contract for inmigrants who want to reside in Spain for over a year. Such contract, according to Rajoy, would entail inmigrants respect for Spanish customs such as monogamy or the illegality of female genital mutilation (he could only name those two in an interview yesterday on prime time TV). Most probably Rajoy doesn't realise that a) local customs are not socially or legally defined therefore difficult to be codified, and b) his two examples are already part of Spanish law therefore his contract would be legally redundant. New show of hands, please. How many of you readers think this is an actual sensible and legally sound proposal or a simple let's blame the inmigrant that doesn't vote situation? I would go for the second choice again. Specially after Arias Cañete, the disgraced economic spokesperson for PP, yesterday went on an off message rant claiming that inmigrants exploit the public health service and work badly 'because I used to get my coffee and croissant speedily before [when we had Spanish waiters] and not anymore [now that inmigrants are the waiters]'. So there you are PP's inmigration policy, you make them pay taxes but don't let them use public services they are entitled to, force them to sign a contract with Spain as if we were an employer and finally if the contract is 'broken' the government and inmigrant can go on a long judicial fight, costing us taxpayers money, to clarify what the contract actually said.

Let's see if that proposal will be put up in regional elections where inmigrants vote in 2011... doubt so, they are crazy but not that crazy.

Crazy electoral promises, made in PP (I)

2008-02-08T10:47:00.000Z

After four years in the opposition, presenting not a single initiative neither trying to propose improvements to any laws made by the Zapatero government. After four years of saying no to every single legislative proposal going through Congress. After four years of actually sitting down and saying nothing constructive, one would have thought PP officials would have thousand of great proposals ready to go for the campaign. We were all wrong...

PP and climate change. Rajoy has promised to plant 500 million trees in the next four years!! That would account for planting 238 trees per minute or equally 12 trees per person in Spain. Let's do a show of hands? How many readers think this is actually possible and how many think is a crazy idea to counteract his statement six months ago that climate change didn't exist and backfired? I'm going for the second one.

Thought it was hilarious? don't worry there are plenty more of these, just keep an eye in this section 'Crazy electoral promises, made in PP'.

2008-02-08T10:46:00.001Z

The need for an urgent clear message on the economy and more importantly, stick to it.

2008-02-06T12:02:00.000Z

Jose Blanco, PSOE's secretary of organisation, points out in his blog that the economic slowdown in Spain is being fueled by the economic data in those regions governed by PP.

Navarra (10.15%), Murcia (9.63%), Valencia (8.14%), La Rioja (7.87%) and Madrid (7.7%), all governed by PP, are the regions where unemployment has risen the most. On the other hand Socialist regions such as Galicia (3.99%), Extremadura (3.59%) and Andalucia (4.4%) have the lowest unemployment rises in the country.

There is a very simple explanation for this. While in the last four years the Zapatero government has focused in switching the national economic model to a more competitive system, PP regions have stuck to the model they know best, unsustainable construction. The central government on one hand has invested in R+D, education and scholarships to improve human capital and high-tech employment, while PP regions have the lowest investments on those fields.

The Spanish economy is ready for a global crisis because public finances are healthy. However, if we want the country to switch economic models to higher efficiency, quality of labour and high value-added production, we need to target those regional economies that lag behind. And those ones are clearly conservative-led ones as unemployment data shows.

Time to speak up. The economy has become by far the most important issue in the campaign, PSOE needs a clear and coherent message to counteract PP's economic demagogy. Once that message is found, and I think regional differences between PP and PSOE regions is a key issue, PSOE should repeat it consistently to let it sink into the electorate's mind. There is too much at stake to let PP win in the last metres of the race.

Showing their real colours.

2008-02-06T11:26:00.000Z

And another 'rare' case of radicalism for the self-appointed moderate right in Spain.

PP has presented a homophobic journalists as number 2 in their lists to the Senate for the province of Albacete. Dimas Cuevas, former editor of the local newspaper 'La tribuna de Albacete', was approached by PP and later accepted the party's proposal to seek a seat in the Upper House. Because PP normally does get three seats in Albacete Cuevas place is almost guaranteed this time around.

Dimas Cuevas is well known in the province for his homophobic articles in the local press. It's not just the fact that he's homophobic, it's that he ridicules gays and lesbians through what he calls 'folky humour'. You let me know where the humour is in claims like this made by Cuevas: 'in gay weddings the meals will be hot dogs and baked bananas' or 'if I suddenly die, I beg my kids aren't given in adoption to a gay couple, after so many years of good education and hard work wouldn't want the poor kids to end up like that'.

He has now apologised for his comments saying they weren't supposed to insult anyone. Frankly, it's him, Rajoy and the entire PP who insult the electorate's intelligence thinking that he didn't mean it or that PP has changed as a party. It hasn't, it is still the nasty party in Spanish politics.

Obama wins Madrid.

2008-02-06T10:58:00.000Z

So after SuperTuesday political madness, I thought I'll rally home a curious fact. The Spanish section of Democrats Abroad based in Madrid gave its final support to Barack Obama. Spaniards also seem to prefer Obama over Clinton these days.

You can watch a little video by El Pais newspaper of the Democratic party in Madrid here.

New PSOE video out.

2008-02-04T13:36:00.000Z

PSOE has put out a new PPB this week. I think the idea is great, exposing PP's negativity. However I think the video could have been a bit tougher...still great video to contrast two very different visions, aspiration versus catastrophism.

Have a look,

Lines of attack ready.

2008-02-04T12:59:00.000Z

Graph extracted from Publico newspaper.

It's all clear to me now. When we are less than two weeks away from the beginning of the official campaign, both main parties, PSOE and PP, have finalised their attack lines.

On one side PSOE is going to focus on the radicalisation of PP in the right, while PP is going to focus the message on making the global economic slow-down a PSOE problem at home.

The key to the election outcome is going to be the mobilisation of the left wing vote by PSOE.

Publico, a left of the centre newspaper, has published today a new poll suggesting that as election day draws closer, the left vote is starting to mobilise and show in the polls, therefore PSOE according to the poll would today get 44.6% of the vote and PP 38.2%, a 6.4 points difference.

I would rather say that this poll shows how Zapatero's share would go up if he gets the hyper-critical left to mobilise (the also known 'exquisite voter').

Also, I still back the proposition I made in this blog months ago, the two debates are going to be crucial. People are hungry for direct no-nonsense debate between Zapatero and Rajoy, I believe that is the single one most valuable asset Zapatero got in the one month official campaign to win big on March 9.

Political courage should be rewarded.

2008-02-03T15:55:00.000Z

Today El Pais newspaper published a new poll that shows PSOE 3.4 points ahead of PP. The poll data also shows that PSOE's voters are less mobilised than those on the right. Therefore the key to victory on March 9 will be abstention. PP's share of the vote is mobilised to its maximum which means that they can go much higher than the 38.6% of the share they already have got. PSOE on the other hand has a greater potential for share growth. When the electorate is asked which party they would be more likely to vote for if they would, the 3.4 difference goes up to 10 points. However likelihood of vote cannot be equated to actual voting on polling day, the greatest Socialist nightmare in this election.

If one looks at specific issues, PSOE's implemented legislation is extremely popular with the electorate (an average of 7.18 out of 10 value points). However it is the failed peace process with ETA (4 out of 10) what has monopolised most of this term's media attention.

The key conclusion one can take out of this poll (with a sample of 2000 people) is that Zapatero has led his government with extreme force of political conviction rather than crowd-pleasing flip-flopping. It's obvious that if the government would have stuck to its 2004 electoral manifesto, which they have succesfully implemented, PSOE would find itself in a much better position and certainly within the possibility of absolute majority in March. However Zapatero has taken on not just his 2004 promises but also a great deal of unpopular but essential issues that affect Spanish society since 1975 with the restoration of democracy.

I believe that politicians are there to lead, to listen to the people but also to tackle grave problems of which no solution will ever be satisfactory for everyone. Zapatero has done that and that's the reason why he's not in such a comfortable position as he could have been. Zapatero has shown political courage on top of fulfilling his electoral promises and I believe such stance should be rewarded on March 9 for the sake of our country's democracy.

Bishopping around

2008-01-31T18:06:00.000Z

The Catholic Church in Spain is becoming such a big joke I don't even know how long is going to take for people to stop going to mass. The bishops have today announced that they will discourage any Catholic from voting for any party that supports peace negotiations with ETA.

Well, that pretty much leaves us with no party to vote for. As UCD negotiated in 1977, PSOE in 1987 and PP in 1999 (yes, even if Aznar now claims not to have done, he did call ETA the 'Basque liberation movement').

So there you are if you are a Spanish Catholic you should convert to a new form of rare Spanish Catholic anarchysm!

It seems old fellas it's time you all get taken to a retirement house, you've absolutely lost it now.

You can find PSOE's official reponse (in Spanish) here

The international card in the campaign.

2008-01-31T15:41:00.000Z

A small mistep by the Socialist camp yesterday has given Rajoy a bit of a boost. PSOE seems to have forgotten about the symbolic importance of international support in democratic politics. While Felipe Gonzalez in the 70s and 80s actively seeked the support of European Socialists in Germany, France and Scandinavia, Zapatero seems prone to avoid such endeavours.

However, it seems to me that under the current state of European social democracy, Zapatero is more popular and high profile abroad than any other Socialist leader in Europe could ever be in Spain. The only two strong leftwing governments in Europe are the UK and Spain. France, Germany and Italy have no strong Socialist oppositions that could be brought to endorse Zapatero. And in the case of Brown it would actually, under my point of view, backfire because of his support for the war in Iraq and the commonly held view in Spain that Labour isn't really a leftwing party and Brown isn't really Tony Blair.

On the other hand, Rajoy yesterday went away to Paris to meet with Sarkozy and Merkel in a UMP rally. As you can see in the video below, Rajoy doesn't look the most decissive of leaders, neither Sarkozy nor Merkel seem enthusiastic enough about Rajoy's presence. It looked more like a 'family obligation' sort of show, a bit like wearing that ugly sweater your grandma made when you go see her.

So many today in Spain may wonder if PSOE has lost support in Europe. I would say that would be a big mistake to make. Zapatero remains by far the most popular leftwing leader in Europe. When Segolene Royal was campaigning in France she brought Zapatero over to rally the French socialists. Sarkozy, despite his official endorsement of Rajoy yesterday, was quick then to point out shared views between Zapatero and himself. Furthermore, today Merkel and Zapatero are meeting in Majorca for the Spanish-German summit and the French-Spanish one, a month ago, brought about the most important anti-terrorist alliance ever agreed in Europe between Sarkozy and Zapatero.

Those that think Zapatero isn't a very influential leader abroad should think twice about it. When he has gone abroad he has achieved his proposed goals and he maintains excellent relations with our neighbours (Morocco, Algeria, France and Portugal), within the EU and in the UN, through the Alliance of Civilisations project. Those who equate international standing with Aznar-like noise-making are extremely ignorant about the nature of Spain's strengths in the international sphere. Spain should be a soft-power, a diplomatic bridge between Latin America, the Arab World and Europe. Our history proves that is where we should be and not trying to embrace more than we should, like Aznar did in Iraq.

Having said all that symbolism from a communication perspective counts, how about a US Democrat endorsement? That would really be quite something, and if is Obama even better.

Here is the video, it is certainly an awkward moment, I wouldn't really call that an endorsement...judge for yourselves...

2008-01-25T19:02:00.001Z

She could be your mayor.

2008-01-25T12:33:00.000Z

Ruiz Gallardon has announced that he might leave politics after the May 9 election. It seems he hasn't taken very well the lies, backstabbing and betrayals of his own party colleagues (look at the previous post).

This blog announced a couple of weeks ago that if Gallardon was to resign, horror! Ana Botella, Aznar's wife, would be the next Mayor of Madrid as the current Deputy Mayor. Today, we have one more reason to fear her arrival to the chair of command in the capital's town hall. She has blamed Madrid's smog crisis in the last few days on some kind of 'dust' coming from the Sahara!

Madrid has been suffering a massive smog crisis in the last few days with the town hall advising not to practice outdoor sports and encouraging the use of public transport. Ana Botella, responsible for the mayoral environment portfolio, has denied the need to cut down traffic in the city or look into pollution levels. She instead has blamed the situation on the intrusion of an African hot wind. Most probably the opening of the new M-30 ring road and the unending construction projects going on in the capital have nothing to do with it. Hold on a minute! actually the do, because what has gone up is nitrogen dioxide, produced by cars not 'African dust'. It has gone up 12 times since Saturday over the 220 micrograms maximum levels which aren't supposed to be reached more than 18 times in a year!

That is what PP can offer us, incompetent mayors, incompetent potential mayors and backstabbing presidential candidates. As that Labour poster used to read in 2001, be scared be very scared!

Rajoy's explanation goes up in smoke.

2008-01-25T12:14:00.000Z

Before excluding Ruiz Gallardon from the party's congressional lists, Rajoy and PP officials used two preemptive arguments to protect themselves from attacks on such an irrational decision. Firstly, they said that mayors cannot be included in lists under internal party rules. Secondly, that Ruiz Gallardon could not go on the lists because mayors that did go on the lists had to be on the very top. Those were Rajoy's arguments to protect himself from accusations that PP was going centrist just for electoral purposes and they would come back to extremism after March 9.

Well, it seems that internal party rules can have exceptions, specifically 11 exceptions. And not all of them go as top candidates in provincial lists. Up to six of them are not at the very top, more than those that actually do, five.

Anyone still believes PP is genuinely gone moderate or it is just a wolf on sheep clothing? Also how can we trust a man to be President who stabs his own allies in the back to appease the most reactionary members of his right-wing establishment?

PSOE's Political Conference this weekend.

2008-01-23T21:48:00.000Z

For those of you interested, PSOE's political conference is ready to go this weekend (26-27th January 2008).

The conference is organised for militants and party officials to get together and debate ideas and proposals for the electoral manifesto as well as to prepare the party and its base for the battle ahead.

Us, bloggers, have been invited by the party to participate in the conference, unfortunately my trip from London is a bit too expensive for PSOE to pay (perfectly understandable, the funds will be put to better use during the campaign), but I am grateful for the invitation nevertheless.

Key speeches and events will be available however through PSOE's online TV, so if you speak Spanish and feel like knowing how PSOE's internal democracy works then you can do it there.

For those of you who don't speak Spanish, don't worry, I'll be blogging the conference from London giving you all the details and gossip.

So come around here on the weekend, the international experts as well as party officials and grassroot activits will be down in Madrid and it's definitely going to be big!

The saddening evolution of the Victims' Association.

2008-01-23T20:43:00.000Z

Today Jose Maria Aznar reappeared in public after his hardline allies removed the moderates from PP's Congressional lists for the May 9 election. He did so in the annual convention of the Association of the Victims of Terrorism, a body that aims at representing the interests of ETA victims. And as it has become customary, Aznar directly accused President Zapatero of lying to the victims about the peace process and directly asking for the victims' vote for PP in the coming election.

Frankly, I am not surprised at all. Since he lost the last election Aznar has wondered the streets full of resentment against Zapatero and taking on any job that would offer him an opportunity to spread his messianic propositions and his catastrophist view on the current government. What saddened me is how an association which every Spaniard has always respected and cared for has been led by a man, Francisco Alcaraz, into the most sectarian positions ever conceived in Spain about the Basque conflict. Alcaraz, in perfect synchronization with PP officials, has used insult and lies to attack Zapatero using the suffering of terrorist victims as a platform to reach out to the electorate. Both PP and Alcaraz have used the victims suffering and resentment to mobilise them against PSOE just to win votes from an electorate which is not immune to the victims' sensivitivy.
The invitation extended to Aznar today to openly request the vote for Rajoy in March, and the kind of insults heard today in the convention are clear evidence of how the Right in Spain has ditched parliamentary politics for neo-con like mass mobilisation in the streets.

I cannot but feel extremely sad that the suffering of so many victims and the sympathy their personal suffering produces in the Spanish public is being used by a political party so cheaply for the first time in the history of Spanish democracy. I, together with many leftwing voters, are united against ETA and wholeheartedly support the victims in their suffering and quest for justice. And we are hurt that PP is trying to divide us for a handful of votes.

I leave you with some of the statements said today in the conference:

Aznar: (about President Zapatero) 'he lacks courage and has too much arrogance and sectarism on him'.
'You should think extremely well about if you want to give your vote to someone that has lied to you on an issue as basic as (sic) terrorism'.
(On the peace process) 'He lied to the Spanish people'.

Alcaraz (President of the Victims' Association): (about President Zapatero) 'he obtained an electoral benefit out of 192 killings, we will be alert for the next trick' (referring to the Madrid bombings victims- their association refused to join Alcaraz's one and created an independent one called Victims of the 11-M).

Maria del Carmen Heras (widow of Fernando Mugica, killed by ETA in 1996): (about President Zapatero) 'he gained power the way we all know about, full of hatred for the death of his grandfather in the Civil War' (Zapatero's grandfather was executed by Franco's forces during the Civil War in Spain).

PP's internal crisis: the inside story.

2008-01-16T14:10:00.000Z

After yesterday's incredible announcement by Rajoy that Gallardon won't be joining him in the Madrid list to Congress, today Arsenio Escolar has published in his blog an insider's story about what really happen. It seems the revolt was bigger than it actually looked yesterday.

According to Escolar:

At 5 pm yesterday Gallardon's name was included in the Congressional list as number 5 or 6. Rajoy wasn't sure yet because he didn't know if Zaplana was going to be head of list in Valencia, he was President there from 1995 to 2002, or if not he would have to be number 5 in Madrid.

Around 6 pm Francisco Camps, current President of Valencia and Zaplana's archienemy, spoke to Rajoy and threatened to resign if Zaplana became head of the list in Valencia. Camps' idea was to resign as President to be able to run for a Congressional seat himself. Rajoy gave up to Camps' pressure and accepted to include Zaplana in the list in Madrid. So by 6 pm Zaplana was number 5 and Gallardon number 6 in Madrid's list and Camps remained as President of Valencia.

But the key moment arrived at 7 pm, Aguirre, President of Madrid, found out on her way back from Malaga, most probably from the man himself, about Camp's victory over Rajoy. She went straight into Genova HQ to put a challenge of her own. With Gallardon present, Aguirre threatened Rajoy to resign as President of Madrid and run for Congress if Gallardon was included in the Madrid list. Rajoy once again gave up and removed Gallardon's name from the list.

After Rajoy's display of weakness, some allies of Gallardon started leaking to the press that the Mayor of Madrid had threatened to resign after the March 9 election if he wasn't included in the party's list. Rajoy today has been trying to regain his authority within the party. He's been pressuring Gallardon last night and this morning not to announce his departure from politics as the media was reporting. But it seems he's lost all authority, Gallardon has announced this morning in a press conference that after the March 9 election he will reflect on past events and take a decission on his political future.

So what looked as a terrible enough story about Rajoy's lack of authority has become an INMENSE story about Rajoy's lack of authority. Moreover, it says how little regard PP elected officials have for the offices they hold that are willing to use them as weapons to advance their political career in Madrid. But the most worrying development of it all I have just found out is that if Gallardon resigns as Mayor of Madrid, his successor will be Ana Botella, Aznar's own wife! who currently is Deputy Mayor. After all I'm not even sure if I want him to resign now...

Gallardon saw it coming.

2008-01-15T21:59:00.000Z

Have a look at this video. Gallardon clearly upset about the designation of Manuel Pizarro, Aznar loyalist and former CEO of Endesa, as number 2 in the PP's Madrid list for Congress after Rajoy. He laughs and jokes around until Rajoy announces it, then his face simply freezes and after the meeting storms out without making any comments to the press.

Also the right wing press is saying that Aguirre threatened to resign as President of the Region of Madrid if Gallardon was made a candidate for a Congressional seat.

Rajoy loses his authority.

2008-01-15T21:20:00.001Z

It's now official, Rajoy has given up to PP hardliners' pressure and decided not to include Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, in the list to Congress from Madrid.

As it's been mentioned many times in this blog, key party figures have started positioning themselves for a potential leadership contest within PP in case Rajoy loses the general election. Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, and Gallardon, Mayor of the city, have been named as the strongest candidates, specially after Rodrigo Rato's departure to the private sector.

Gallardon, seen as a moderate with a cross-party appeal, have failed to promote himself within the party's structure contrlled by the hardliners, Aguirre among them, loyal to former President Aznar. Rajoy's inability to impose his wish of including Gallardon is a massive blow to his long and tortuous walk to the centre. In such a hierarchical party as PP, there are no primary elections or internal democracy of any kind, the leader is in control of all key decissions. This authoritarian model was best reflected in Aznar's personal election of Rajoy as his succesor in 2004 that the party ratified with 99% of the vote a month later. The hardliners ability to impose a decission on Rajoy, who has included Gallardon in his Monday 'maitines' executive meeting (the most important committee within PP, formed by Rajoy and his most trusted advisors), clearly debilitates his figure after a month of a strong presence of PP's leader in the news cycle and an increase of 0.4% in his popularity with the electorate.

With this surrender by Rajoy, Aguirre is a step closer to win the leadership in March if Rajoy loses. She already tightly controls the party in Madrid. It will be interesting to see what happens now in the run up to the election. If Rajoy cannot hold the party together and keep the chance of victory alive, key officials could start thinking about the leadership contest even before the campaign was over. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see what the electorate's reaction to this development will be. Gallardon is by far the most popular PP official with the electorate, however his allies within the party are very few.

Finally, it's also worrying how the likes of COPE radio, the Church's radio station, and other hardline media outlets have increased their influence within PP. Jimenez Losantos, COPE's star presenter, has publicly strongly criticised Gallardon for his moderation and openly opposed his incorporation to the party's list in Madrid.

Rajoy shoots himself on the foot (again).

2008-01-15T12:03:00.000Z

Late last night a jubilant Rajoy announced that he had convinced Manuel Pizarro to be his number 2 in the list for Madrid. Pizarro, former CEO of Endesa, is a business tycoon that became notorious this last year when he battled the Zapatero Government when the control of Endesa was being disputed between EOn and Gas Natural, both also energy companies.

It seems curious to me that Rajoy, the defender of the 'great Spanish nation', could offer the ministry of the economy to a man who fought long and hard to sell Endesa to Germany's EOn even though Gas Natural's, a Spanish company, offer was better. I'd say it seems obvious now that Pizarro was opposing Gas Natural's bid mainly on political terms, guided by PP, and that effort is paying off now with a PP offer to go on its lists.

Rajoy is happy, he got a proper economist, unlike Arias Cañete before, that can actually speak economics to debate with PSOE's heavyweight Pedro Solbes. However he should have read the law before announcing Pizarro's name. Under the incompatibility of public office law, Pizarro won't be able to participate in any Cabinet meeting or take any decission on issues related to Endesa, because of his recent post in the company. In practice this means that pretty much the Finance Minister of the Central Government of Spain wouldn't be able to take decissions related to the energy market! such decissions include, tariff policy, the future of nuclear energy, future infrastructure plans and even a Finance Minister's key role, the Budget, specifically the section on energy policy.

So there you are once again image over substance is the greatest ill of PP. Rajoy has put up a person partisan to the core, with no experience on fiscal or employment policy and on top of that cannot exercise his post's competences because of incompatibility, but Rajoy must be thinking, hey! but everyone know who he is. Are we going back to PP's policies of friends in government? We surely are. I don't want a half-minister in the key department under the current global economic slow-down just because he's been a good ally of Rajoy these last years . Rajoy once again doesn't think for the good of the country he just thinks about how to win at any cost, imagine what he would be like in government!

Time to get serious.

2008-01-14T20:07:00.001Z

Today the President of Spain has officially dissolved Congress and announced the King the dates for the electoral contest. The race is on and now it's time we all Socialist unite and work together for a new mandate on March 9.

Having said that, it's Zapatero who needs to get serious about it now. His announcement yesterday in El Mundo that international institutions, not the Spanish Government, had kept contact with ETA even after the terrorist attack in Madrid in December 2006 is certainly a big blow to PSOE's moves to neutralise ETA as a campaign issue.

Zapatero is an extremely polarising character. It's the kind of politician that either you hate or you love. He should try to soften that. Although his Presidency has been an enormous success and has moved Spain forward after 8 years of inmovilism under Aznar's Government, it's obvious that its communication policy has been extremely poor. A Government that has achieved high economic growth, created employment and promoted social rights vanguard of the world, cannot be ahead just by 3 points, within the statistical margin of error, in today's Cadena SER Pulsometro poll.

I still believe the contest can be won and it will be won and with a bigger majority than polls show these days. But it should have been a victory with a certain absolute majority and this is not the case. If Zapatero is reelected he should certainly think about his communication strategy and should bring in new faces to his communication team. PSOE under Zapatero has modernised the party's internal structure and equated it to other modern social democratic parties in Europe, specially Labour in the UK. It's time he brings in professional communicators to his team, so many achievements this term aren't being explained properly to the people. And to those that could be thinking that I'm talking just about spin and image over substance, I'd say that communicating with the citizens is an essential goal of Parliamentary democracy.

Time to professionalise political communication within PSOE, a radical reform in Ferraz HQ is essential to avoid this term's problems next time around.

New Socialist Youth video.

2008-01-11T17:21:00.000Z

I just watched this new electoral video by the Socialist Youth and I cannot agree more with its arguments. The night of the 14th of March 2004 thousands of young people celebrating PSOE's victory then chanted to Zapatero the now famous slogan 'No nos falles' ('Don't fail us' in Spanish). That chanting represented the trust millions of young voters had given Zapatero through their vote.

This video, though in Spanish, shows why the Zapatero Presidency has done more than any other before for the young members of society. For all of those of you that understand Spanish here you are.

A good day for Zapatero.

2008-01-11T16:43:00.000Z

After a couple of weeks of a good news cycles for PP yesterday PSOE grabbed the initiative again.

In the morning it was Rajoy who made a fool of himself by announcing that if elected he will create a new ministry of the family and social welfare. This announcement was aimed at capitalising on the Church's rally a week ago in favour of the 'traditional' idea of the family, that of a man and a woman. I surfed around different blogs and comment sections of newspapers and other media outlets to find out the reaction to this 'unusual' announcement. It was unanimous, every single comment, besides of those coming from the less sane citizens of Spain, either joked about the proposal or felt it was outright populist. Furthermore, many requested to know what would then happen with the already established Social Affairs Ministry. A legitimate question I would say, specially if the creation of new and innecessary bureaucracy comes from a self-appointed economic liberal that is giving away tax cuts as if they were sweets. And they say PSOE can't handle the economy, wait for Mr. morality to come in with a blank cheque for the religious right.

The second and most important announcement of the day came from France. The first Sarkozy-Zapatero bilateral summit ended with the announcement of the creation of a new permanent police command formed by French and Spanish forces to cooperate in the fight against ETA's terrorism. ETA has been by far the least popular issue for the Government in the last four years. PP's disloyal opposition to the peace process became the first time in the democratic history of Spain that a party used the fight against terrorism for electoral purposes. But that opposition of simplistic arguments and outright lies have hurt the Government specially after the failure of the cease fire. This new announcement shows that Zapatero gave peace a chance but didn't disregard police action as essential in the fight against ETA. This new agreement with France is by far the most important in the history of the conflict since Mitterrand agreed to 'offer a helping hand' in the 1980s to Felipe Gonzalez. PP officials were gutted, Sarkozy, a rightwing populist like them had just blown one of their key issues for the campaign. Sarkozy's decission together with the rejection today by Congress of PP's proposal for a debate on Batasuna's legal status, political wing of ETA, before its dissolution have further weakened the terrorist front in the campaign.

So things are looking up. I argued on Sunday that PSOE has a good chance to win with an even greater majority on March 9. The economic debate will blow over because although it could be bad for PSOE, PP has got no economic team to compete with the Socialist one. The debate on the fight against terrorism is looking better by the day for PSOE and if the illegalisation of Batasuna's sister party, ANV, arrives before the election it will be even better for the Socialists. If PSOE can keep control of the news cycle until the campaign officially starts and then runs a serious and energetic campaign I believe everyone will be suprised of the end result. I still believe an absolute majority is possible for Zapatero.

Proyecto 80% / Project 80%

2008-01-08T17:30:00.000Z

We in the left in Spain have been letting PP and the right to take the iniative in the streets for the past four years. We have let them insult us, lie and claim the streets. And we say ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

It's time the leftwing majority in Spain reclaims our rightful place in the political sphere.

The spirit of the opposition to the war in Iraq must be reclaimed to put Zapatero back in power with an even greater majority.

Let's mobilise again. Let's all leftwing voters in Spain get out to vote on the 9th of March, let's bring participation to a historic 80%.

The economy: PP's lies.

2008-01-08T15:21:00.000Z

PP has found two months before the general election in the economic slow-down a new argument to attack the Zapatero Governmennt.

Rajoy argued today in COPE, the Church's radio station, that PSOE has blown in these last four years the previous PP government's sound economic indicators.

The reality is very different and Rajoy knows it, here are some arguments of why the Spanish economy is slowing down today.

1) Oil prices are at an all time high. Oil prices are having a great impact on inflation today across the globe. And in Spain is no different. However Rajoy seems to forget that the reason for the escalation of oil prices today is due to the war in Iraq and the instability that suffers the Middle East. The Bush Administration is responsible today for the escalation in oil prices due to the unlawful war his administration undertook in Iraq, and that same war was supported by the PP Government under Aznar and of which Rajoy was Vicepresident. Therefore Rajoy and his party are directly responsible today of inflation in our country.

2) The slow-down in the construction industry, engine of economic growth in Spain, is due to a necessary change in the economic priorities of the Government. The Zapatero Government has focused on switching the Spanish economy to one of sustainable development and diversification, including greater exports, productivity and value-added production (high-tech for example). Many economists have been warning of the possible burst of the construction bubble in Spain, and construction companies have moved swiftly, with that idea in mind, by diversifying their businesses. Ferrovial, ACS, Sacyr or Acciona have entered the energy, services and other industries to prevent the potential burst from affecting their profits. The Government as well has been preventing the burst, happening today in the UK for example, by providing a soft landing. It was the Aznar Government which promoted that kind of unsustainable growth, even today regions under PP (Murcia, Valencia, Madrid) maintain that economic model and are the ones suffering greater from the economic slow-down. PSOE was left no alternative than reforming the Spanish economy to compete with other developed economies as well as protecting the environment.

So there you are, if Rajoy wasn't so prone to lying and hiding the facts, would realise that the Zapatero Government has been modernising the Spanish economy these last four years to make it competitive. And has done so with a GDP growth of over 3.8% as well as creating half of the new jobs in the EU. The economic slow down of these last two months are due to PP's economic policy from 1996 to 2004 based on construction and a war in Iraq that has put oil prices up to an all time high.

Four more years for Zapatero will mean further modernisation of the Spanish economy to compete with those of developed countries such as Germany, Ireland or the Scandinavian countries. A Rajoy Government would mean more of the kind of growth based in speculation and unsustainable development seen in the late 90s and evident today in the regions they still control.

Reality check

2008-01-06T14:26:00.000Z

So everyone in the Socialist camp is starting to get nervous. As we get closer to election day many Socialist bloggers and activists are starting to wonder if PP could actually win the general election in March. Polls show PSOE ahead by just 2.5 points at national level and people wonder if the economic slow-down, though still growing, the Catholic Church open attacks and PP's communication strategy are starting to pay off for the conservatives.

Well, let me reassure some Socialists out there. We are in a good position to still win , and possibly big, on the 9th of March.

First of all, the official campaign hasn't started yet. We have two presidential debates, where voters will be able to compare Zapatero to Rajoy directly. It isn't a surprise Zapatero offered the debate and Rajoy was reluctant about accepting the challenge. In terms of personal ratings Rajoy's are the lowest in the history of Spanish democracy since 1978. On the other side Zapatero's are on a healty 58%, higher than Aznar's in 2000 when he won with absolute majority and similar to the golden years of the charismatic Felipe Gonzalez in the 1980s.

Secondly, voters before election day tend to criticise the Government for its failures and tend to overlook its achievements, that greatly outnumber the former. The important thing is that on election day the option will be a good Zapatero Government that has produced high economic growth, high employment figures, new social rights and has raised pensions and the minimum wage or a Rajoy opposition based on disloyalty on counterterrorist policy, demagogy in the territorial debate and no substance in anything thar really matters to voters. When it gets to March 9 voters will have to choose between Zapatero's positive vision or Rajoy's catastrophism.

El Pais and other outlets within the Prisa media group seem to have distanced themselves from PSOE. I will say that they are letting PSOE know that their support isn't for free, which is the right position, no Socialst government should be complacent with its achievements. But eventually PRISA won't let PP win without a fight, they are just making sure PSOE understand that the battle isn't yet won and that a tough fight should be put up. The communication war has been won by PP so far, but PSOE has a successful term and great candidates up to hit back on the prestige card.

I have been looking at the electoral map for a while now and hope for a great landslide is there. Firstly, Madrid, Rajoy's popularity there is lower than his national average, which means he most probably won't replicate Gallardon and Aguirre's landlsides there in the local elections. Murcia, with the latest corruption cases many in the rural areas could go PSOE this time around, it is doubtful, but we only need 6.000 votes to bring home the extra Congress seat allocated this time around, that would mean PP 6 seats and PSOE 4, not bad for a region politically monopolised by PP. In Valencia, again it's Rajoy who presents himself as candidate. Rita Barbera, Valencia's Mayor, has already announced she doesn't want to be candidate, which hurts PP's list there. Furthermore, Valencia is one of the regions where IU, United Left, gets one of their five seats nationally, so there is a strong left-wing minority there. Finally, Castilla y Leon, a moderate conservative region enjoys the fact that Zapatero is from Leon and the high-speed train has arrived to Segovia and Valladolid, many will be happy to change their vote in a region famously neglected previously. In the PSOE camp on the other hand, Catalonia might be upset about transport disruptions, but would they let anti-Catalanist PP win? if the election gets to close they will come out to vote for PSOE. In the nationalist regions, Galicia, Basque Country and Catalonia, PSOE has defended nationalists' right to express their believes against PP's Spanish centralism, many that voted nationalists in regional elections will go PSOE at national level just to stop Rajoy from winning.

To all Socialist supporters out there I will say come down. We have been united for four years against the demagogic attacks by PP. PP got no programme for government and a leader without any charisma whatsoever. The economic situation benefits them now? yes it does, but Pedro Solbes is our economic heavy-weight, where is theirs?. Our team, ideas and candidate are better. When the campaign officially starts the PSOE machine will roll into battle with all its assets intact. PP has spent four years creating chaos because it helps them to avoid policy, but when it comes to campaigning policy offers and an able team are what counts to the electorate, we got both and PP got none. You will see, we will be better off than it seems today.

The Church enters the campaign.

2008-01-03T10:53:00.000Z

On Sunday the governing hierarchy of the Spanish Catholic Church organised a mass rally in Madrid to denounce certain liberal policies promulgated by the Zapatero Government in the last four years.

Bishops from across Spain denounced the new divorce law, gay marriages and the new education plan as well as the 1985 abortion legislation.

Such display of moralistic righteousness and social intolerance is common among the Catholic hierarchy in Spain. But this time around their claims went even further and entered the very political. They denounced the rolling back of Human Rights and the possible dissolution of democracy because of these laws and openly attacked the Zapatero Government.

This is the last step taken by PP and his right-wing apparatus to poison even further the political situation in the country. Couple of months ago I wrote in this blog that PSOE wasn't planning to present in his electoral manifesto any issues that could be seen by the Catholic hierarchy as a head on attack on them. I called for PSOE to rethink their position, and I think the bishops' show on Sunday proves my argument right. The Spanish Catholic Church is certainly one of the most conservative and anachronistic ones that exist today. Having openly supported the Francoist dictatorship, they still enjoy fiscal and legal benefits unknown anywhere else. Today I ask myself why should my taxes be paying this church to spread hatred and intolerance as well as openly oppose my political believes? A revision of the State-Church agreements must now be undertaken and it's the Catholic Church that has forced such revision. Their faith is in decline not because of a Socialist Government but because of their fundamentalist views on social issues that Spaniards dealt morally with a long time ago.

Furthermore, I second Jose Blanco's, PSOE's secretary of organisation, demand that if PP is in full agreement with the Catholic hiearchy that they present in their electoral manifesto a promise to derogate the following laws, denounced by the bishops: gay marriage and adoption, equality, abortion and education. I can assure you they won't do it, because they know the Spanish public in general supports them. They let the Catholic Church do the dirty job for them, if that it isn't cowardice you let me know a better definition for it.

I love Zapatero video (no comment)

2007-12-30T13:33:00.000Z

Made by our friends from ilovezp.blogspot.com

CiU's xenophobic video.

2007-12-28T18:24:00.000Z

I will never learn the lesson. After listening to Rajoy's demagogic discourse throughout this last four years I desperately looked around for the hope of a different kind of right-wing party in Spain. And thought I found it in Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, the Parliamentary spokesperson for CiU, Catalan Christian Democrat party, in Congress. A man of great oratory and gently manners, conservative yes, but of a healthy kind.

But today my hopes have gone astray after seeing Duran i Lleida's new video for the March 2008 campaign. At the beginning of the video one can see a Catalan newspaper in a bin with a headline about the story of a Moroccan father prohibiting his daughter from attending PE classes in school. The paper is located on a dark alley surrounded by Arab businesses in Barcelona clearly linking immigration and the intolerance of an isolated case. It is interesting as the entire video is all about complains, infrastructures, education and crime, with immigration put into the same basket of 'bad things' happening in Catalonia.

I will never learn the lesson. Right-wing parties cannot help themselves to score points on such cheap arguments. I am extremely disappointed with the only right-wing politician left in Spain I had a bit of respect for.

You can watch the video here:

http://www.ciu.cat/reproductor.php?v_id=22418

It's transport investment, stupid!

2007-12-24T14:05:00.000Z

New high speed lines are connecting Malaga, Cordoba, Valladolid and Segovia to Madrid since the beginning of this week.

Zapatero and Magdalena Alvarez, Minister for transport, inagurated the first 300 km per hour train this week.

With this new investment Spain is well on its way to becoming by 2010 the country in Europe with more km. of high speed lines, as promised by Zapatero in his electoral manifesto of 2004.

I personally feel extremely proud of this achievement of the PSOE Government. It's good for the economy, it's good for the environment and it puts Spain on the frontline of transport innovation in the world. This is exactly what a Socialist government should do, to show right-wing politicians and polluters how environmental protection can go hand on hand, and even improve, with economic growth. Today is a good day to be a Socialist in Spain.

In the meantime I am getting ready for the new line to Murcia, which unfortunately our regional PP government is blocking, god knows why! Actually I know why, because they can't bear seeing PSOE doing good things for Murcia, while Aznar did none, and are trying to fool the local population to vote for them on empty promises. All they care about is perpetuating their power grip and filling their pockets at the expense of the hard working people of Murcia.

PSOE and Catalonia

2007-12-24T13:25:00.001Z

El Pais newspaper has produced a leaked memo from PSOE HQ advising their Catalan section, Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), to promote a more Catalanist discourse in the run up to the March election. The reason for this is, as mentioned many times before in this blog, that Catalonia is key for PSOE to win the election. In the 2004 election, PSOE won from Catalonia 21 seats in Congress against 6 by PP. PSOE strategists however are worried about the more nationalist vote within Catalonia that might be going to nationalist parties or abstain this time around after the infrastructure crisis in Barcelona and the delay on the arrival of the high-speed train line from Madrid.

PSOE's support in Catalonia is divided between two groups. Firstly, immigrants from other parts of Spain that moved to industrialised Catalonia and share a dual identity, both Spanish and Catalan, and which tend to go vote and represent around 70% of PSOE's share in the region. The second group is that of Catalan-born middle-classes with a strong Catalan identity that tend to vote nationalist in regional and local elections but vote PSOE in general elections as they see the party friendlier to their interets. This second group represents around 20-22% of PSOE's vote but is more volatile, as it tends to abstain more often.

This second group is the one PSOE strategists are worried about. The infrastructure crisis hits them harder than any other group, as business people, and feel that a nationalist party in a coalition government could bring in the extra investment to sort ou the situation in Catalonia. A more Catalanist discourse by the newly chosen head of list, the current housing minister, Carme Chacon, could reactivate their vote.

Although PSOE's vote loss isn't going to go to PP, it would mean a smaller number of seats to add up to the national count. PP is gearing up to fight hard in Valencia and Madrid where the biggest number of seats for them are going to come from. PSOE is focusing in Catalonia, as Andalucia, its other key stronghold, is very active politically and will carry a big majority for them.

The only problem is the leak comes from those within the party that feel PSOE is pandering to peripheral nationalists rather than focusing on a more 'Spanish' vote. Although unlikely, this can also add up to the growing concern of moderate voters from poorer regions, that feel alienated while Catalonia gets bigger chunks of the budget for public investment.

Rajoy's movie taste.

2007-12-20T16:02:00.000Z

Today PP opened a personal website for their candidate to the Presidency. I decided to have a look at it and among several things one can do is to look at Rajoy's all time favourite movies, the personal touch see.

And I was horrified! These are his three favourite movies:

Tesis (Thesis): a gore movie about torture. The movie plot is about a media student in Madrid who is writing her thesis on how far violence should be displayed on TV. She embarks herself in a journey throughout the movie watching gore videos about amputations and other forms of torture. Very pleasant.

El Abuelo (The grandfather): a movie about a grandfather who comes back from the US to figure out, after his son's death, which one of his two granddaughters is not really so. Familiar isn't it, an old man on a personal moralistic crusade to save the honour of his family, very Rajoy wouldn't you say? just change family for country and you get the picture.

Back to the future: a classic Hollywood movie. I personally quite like it and many people do as well. But would it be among your all time favourites? I don't think so. Maybe someone told him to put it up after the two previous titles. PP strategists don't want voters to think Rajoy is some kind of old psychopath. Now it seems his an old psycopath with bad movie taste.

Rajoy praises Aznar's archenemy.

2007-12-20T01:16:00.000Z

Rajoy has praised Felipe Gonzalez, Spanish Socialist President from 1982 to 1996, as a man who has good ideas for Europe. He has welcomed Gonzalez candidacy as chairman of the new group of experts to look into the future of the EU.

And I wonder... why wasn't Aznar considered for this post? It was Nicolas Sarkozy, the French right-wing President, who proposed Gonzalez for the post. Why didn't he proposed Aznar? I'll tell you why, because no European right-wing leader would even dare having a photo-op taken with Aznar. He has become the toxic neo-con kind of leader. Rajoy would have loved to have Aznar rather than Gonzalez, but seeing that it was almost impossible for it to happen, well...he though he might as well praise Gonzalez's election as 'an honour for Spain'. I would say, cut it short Mariano and say it as it is, PSOE today is the only well respected Spanish party in Europe, both within the left and the right ideological spectrum.

Liberal wannabes crumble.

2007-12-20T00:44:00.000Z

Rosa Diez's new party, UPD, the new liberal wannabe party in Spain is crumbling even before it started campaigning. Rosa Diez, the eternal second in line candidate to the PSOE leadership, decided to leave PSOE in September to become leader of her own right of the left (whatever that means) party. She, together with Fernando Savater, thought they could build a new party which could claim the political centre of Spanish politics. The sad thing is that Diez, and certainly Savater, don't have much of an ideological drive. Their only common believe, as they are both Basque, is that PSOE has given too much away to nationalist parties from Catalonia and the Basque Country. Their new party is based on the idea of a Socialist party without the so-called centrifugal forces within PSOE represented by the present President of Spain. Their error has been to label themselves as economic liberals, when they aren't as they are more of the protectionist Socialist kind, and political liberals, which is PSOE policy minus the previously mentioned centrifugal policy. Such liberal label has no base in Spain where, as argued in my earlier entry about Spanish electoral behaviour, the centre is a marginal political position among the electorate. The need to create a new image has forced them to create a new party that: a) hasn't got a militant or electoral base b) hasn't got a clear differentiated ideology c) isn't any different from many currents within PSOE itself.

I believe that Diez is gone into some kind of massive egotrip. She knew she never had enough support within PSOE to win the leadership of the party and has decided to play into the hands of PP on the Spanish nationalism card. It hasn't really worked out, today her entire party executive committee in Catalonia resigned over an internal infight over who was going to be the candidate for Congress for Barcelona! How can it be that a party that is three months old, that has never contested a national general election is already fighting over a leadership contest as if they were a natural party of government? It seems to me that her egocentrism is the only value Diez has transmited to the very few activists that have joined her party in the last three months. Good luck to her and her sect, they'll need it to even be in the ballot on the 9th of March.

The war within PP: Madrid.

2007-12-18T13:11:00.000Z

Rajoy has declared today that it could be possible for a mayor to be candidate for Congress in March according to his party's Constitution. He gave this answer to a question by a journalist asking about the possibility of Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, mayor of Madrid, being his number 2 in the list for Madrid in the March election.

With this comment Rajoy has for the second time this year contradicted one of his own party officials. Ignacio Gonzalez, Esperanza Aguirre's right-hand man in Madrid, claimed this Sunday in El Mundo that it is incompatible to hold both positions under PP internal rules. Several months ago it was Angel Acebes, Secretary General of PP, who stated a similar position.

As this blog has been commenting for a while now there is an internal struggle within PP to position key candidates to the succession of Rajoy in case he loses the general election in March. Esperanza Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, who controls the party in the capital, has been trying for months to block the possiblity of Ruiz Gallardon entering the national lists for Congress. Aguirre cannot become a Congresswoman while President of Madrid, Spanish law doesn't permit this possibility, so she's trying to block Gallardon from doing so. The reason for this is that it's expected that the leader of the main oppossition party must be a member of Congress to be able to debate the President in the chamber. She could be a Senator under the law but the Senate attracts substantially less media attention which would make a leadership challenge from there much more difficult. Aguirre has got the hardliners within PP on her side, Acebes positioning months ago is a clear example, Gallardon on the other side got the more moderate wing of the party.

Rajoy, is seriously considering having Gallardon as his number 2 for Madrid in March, PP strategists consider that this move would put a face of moderation in PP's lists to appeal to centrist voters. But Aguirre isn't going to let it be without putting up a fight within the party in Madrid, her own powerhouse. Under PP's Constitution, the party list for Madrid has to be approved first by Madrid's Regional Electoral Committee, which funnily enough is chaired by Ignacio Gonzalez. Rajoy and Gallardon have a tremendous battle ahead to bypass that roadblock organised by Aguirre and the party's hardliners. Furthermore, Rajoy has already distanced himself from Acebes and Zaplana. If they feel left behind in the eventuality of a leadership contest they will openly align with Aguirre against Rajoy and Gallardon and the battle could then turn out to be really nasty.

No courage in British Labour.

2007-12-15T16:27:00.000Z

If you'll excuse me I am going to talk a little bit about something else today. I was considering putting a little remark about Felipe Gonzalez, former Socialist President of Spain from 1982 to 1996, being selected by EU leaders as the chair of a group of European experts to look into the long term future of the Union. But then reading the British press I found attacks on Prime Minister Gordon Brown by the Conservative shadow Europe minister, Mark Francois, for 'opening a pandora's box with the election of an old Spanish socialist' to lead this group.

As it has become the common norm in the British Labour Party, besides within its group of very courageous MEPs, they didn't respond to the attack. So I have decided to, modestly, do it for them.

If Mark Francois would honour his title by knowing a little bit about European politics he would realise that Felipe Gonzalez isn't an old socialist by any means. In 1979 during the 28th PSOE National Congress Felipe Gonzalez defended the removal of any mention to Marxism in the party's Constitution, similar to Blair's removal of Labour's clause 4. He famously gave an ultimatum, 'Marxism or me', and after the party voted against his proposal resigned as leader. Later in the year the party decide to scrap the clause on Marxism and Gonzalez came back as leader. Furthermore, he undertook structural reforms in several industries that modernised the Spanish economy, without the disastrous consequences of Thatcherite reforms. He also took on the trade unions when he had to and got Spain into NATO. So Mark Francois should really think twice about making such innacurate statements if he's hoping to be taken seriously at any point in his career.

But going back to the title of this entry, the British Labour Party has no courage when it comes to its European policy. Why are they letting themselves been attacked continously on EU policy? Why are they not saying what they expect from Europe and what they can contribute to it? Political leadership is about shaping people's perception on issues when one believes he's right. Labour is the pro-European party in Britain and should be saying so out loud. Where are the high-profile rebuttal of innacurate information by the Tories, UKip and the right-wing press? Britain is by far the most Euro-sceptical country in the EU and when the Labour party stops defending the benefits Britain has got from Europe the fight gets tougher and tougher. Brown cannot be late for a signing and cannot play down the issue, he should be proud of what he has accomplished and explain how Britain is going to benefit. How British people want more transparency in Europe and that's what the Lisbon Treaty does. How a common market is free market and how many British enjoy welfare benefits on holidays in Portugal, Spain or France because of the EU. Etc, etc, etc. Labour thinks they can avoid Europe and be ok, but every time Europe comes up in the politica agenda they will be attacked and at some point they might want to bang their fist on the table and speak the truth to Eurosceptic right-wingers. Internationalism is left-wing and Socialist parties in Europe are friends no foes of Labour and they should start acknowledging that.
There was a time Labour was seeing unelectable because of being loony lefties and Blair changed that. It is time Brown stops apologising for being in the EU and starts to change British attitudes towards it, for the sake of Britain, Europe and the British Labour party.

Quote of the day.

2007-12-14T16:19:00.000Z

'If they don't put bombs is because you have surrendered'

Mariano Rajoy tells Zapatero that if ETA stops bombing is because the Government has negotiated with terrorists (16th January 2007).

Also if people are interested El Pais newspaper following its annual tradition has prepared a special presentation on events that happened in 2007. It is quite well done and thought people might find it interesting. The site is:

http://www.elpais.com/comunes/2007/resumen_2007/

Enjoy!

New poll today.

2007-12-14T13:47:00.000Z

Antena 3 TV and Onda Cero radio published a joint poll yesterday. Both media outlets are owned by the same centre-right media conglomerate so their poll could help us balance out the left-leaning polling we saw on Monday from Publico and Cadena Ser.

The poll shows that if the election were held today, PSOE would win with 42% of the vote, 0.6% less than in the 2004 elections. PP will get 38.2% of the vote, 0.5% more than in 2004. The same poll shows ERC, the Catalan nationalist party, going down losing almost 1% of its share while IU would go up and the rest of the parties remain the same.

The results aren't very specific so cannot really anlyse that much further. The result stays within my personal margin of error, almost 4 points difference before the official campaign starts, which shows PSOE is in good shape even after the bumpy ride of the last month. Being a conservative-leaning poll I would say it's good news overall, people are talking about election day but many still need to make up their mind yet and those are the ones that count.

One piece of great news in this poll is the fact that when asked which party voters think can deal better with terrorism and ETA, PSOE comes first with 35.6% and PP trailing with 31.8%. This, and I was surprised, deconstructs the idea that conservative parties are perceived to be more able to deal with national security than left-wing ones, at least in Spain that is. Also terrorism is one of the key issues PP has been campaigning on which this poll shows might not bring home that many votes after all.

Too early to pick a winning horse yet, but things are looking good for Zapatero. It's now important to make sure Socialist voters understand that they will only remain the same if they come out to campaign and to vote, that's PSOE's key task in the four months remaining to election day.

Televised debates agreed.

2007-12-13T11:03:00.000Z

Yesterday around 7 pm in a centric Madrid hotel the campaign directors for PSOE and PP, Jose Blanco and Pio Garcia Escudero, met to discuss the possibility of a face off between Zapatero and Rajoy on live TV. They agreed to have two debates one during the last week before the electoral campaign officially starts and one in the last week of the official campaign (sometime at the beginning of March). They will meet again next week to discuss the format and contents of the debate.

This will be the first debates between candidates since 1993 when Felipe Gonzalez and Jose Maria Aznar debated live on TV. That time around PSOE won the election. In the 1996, 2000 and 2004 campaigns PP refused to attend the debate.

A week ago Zapatero challenged Rajoy to a televised national debate. PP candidates have never been very keen on televised debates, neither in Parliament, but the latest are compulsory by law. Normally incumbents prefer not to celebrate debates because that puts the challenger at the same level with them. However challengers are pretty much forced to say yes to debates or else they are perceived by the public as too weak to take on the incumbent and therefore provide a credible alternative, and supposedly better, governmental programme.

This time around seeing that Zapatero, the incumbent, challenged Rajoy didn't really have an excuse not to attend. But Rajoy is hating the idea of a debate, he knows he's a worst speaker than Zapatero by far and he knows he can only come worse off, even more than he's at the moment. That's why he has asked for two debates, first one to see what Zapatero weak points are to attack them in a second one that will stay in the viewer's mind. Will it work? I extremely doubt it, but PP's dirty tricks are well known so PSOE should be careful about negotiating the format and contents. Zapatero debating skills are well-known and he can take the final blow to Rajoy then, but expectations for him are so high that a bad performance could boost Rajoy and put PSOE in bad shape for the last sprint to the finish line. Overall great news for Zapatero and PSOE.

I am very excited, a proper national debate live on TV. Now, problem is I have to figure out how to watch it from London.

Business wants PSOE to stay.

2007-12-12T17:27:00.000Z

Gerardo Diaz Ferran, president of the Spanish business council, has said today in Cadena Ser radio that the Spanish economy in 2008 is going to do better than certain prophet of doom has said. He continued by saying that the business council sees as excellent news Pedro Solbes' reelection as economic Minister for PSOE.

Needless to say Diaz Ferran was talking about Rajoy when he mentioned a 'prophet of doom'. I wrote a week ago that PSOE should be careful with the economy during the campaign. It seems the business council agrees, they have given PSOE an early Christmas present in the form of their indirect backing.

Still waiting for anyone to say, outside PP obviously, that Rajoy would be a better president than Zapatero. Seems even his traditional allies don't even believe it for a moment.

How to blow economic stability in 3 easy steps and bring down your political credibility along with it.

2007-12-12T16:53:00.000Z

Step 1: announce a tax cut. A serious one as well, no paying taxes for people earning less than 16.000 euros a year. Good electoral stuff, people love it.

Step 2: in the same speech and with no shame, keep your poker face on, announce free nursery schools for all children across the country. Not just any country, a country of 44 million people so you can show how many of them you are going to build and how noone is going to pay. People love it but start wondering how you are going to pay for it if you cut taxes.

Step 3: polls show you aren't doing very well at all. Announce a raise of 150 euros a month in the lowest pensions. People, who were already a bit suspicious, take your party's ballot paper put it in a bin and go look for someone who actually stops mocking their intelligence.

So there you have it, nice and easy, the ultimate guide to PP's political campaigning.

A conservative party, anywhere else, will always look into two issues lowering taxes and lowering public services, you might not agree with the idea, I don't, but it's coherent, less money equals less spending.

But when it comes to PP and his leader Rajoy, they always can do better. Like Jesus multiplied loaves and fishes they can lower taxes and raise public spending. Not sure people are buying it anymore. Rajoy is starting to look like Joaquín Almunia, the Socialist candidate in 2000, who knowing that he was going to lose badly started his own electoral miracle shop offering similar promises. He lost by absolute majority. Rajoy is starting to look desperately Almunia-like.

Quote of the day.

2007-12-10T20:52:00.001Z

'The Left allies itself with radical Islamism. The loss of intellectual and historical references after the fall of the wall and 9-11 has taken the Left into a profound crisis. I observe with worry the alliance that a part of the Left maintains with the radical Islamic fundamentalism, with antisystem extremists, with relativist culture'.

From 'Letters to a Spanish youth' by Jose Maria Aznar.